Pilot Demand Models

Airline Pilot Demand Reports

Pilot Demand Reports, that rely on fleet projections and mandatory pilot retirements (age 65)

These models are limited by their completeness. With these limitations pilots are encouraged to reach out to the website if they see ways to improve the accuracy of these numbers.

Current staffing numbers and ratios are applied throughout the model to reflect the number of crews required per aircraft.

The model is broken down into components.

Fleet breakdown

Just hover over each slice to see specific numbers and percentage.

Pilot Demand Table

Displays the values used to calculate the corrosponding charts.

Charted Projections

The pilot demand pulled from the table explained above is charted through the decade.

Percent Seniority Junior, is the percent of the seniority list projected to be junior to someone hired at the beginning of the chart. The slope, or change in relative seniority over time is a good gauge regarding the seniority movement for anyone over that an applicable time period.

Charted Demand for Pilots

Compares two different growth scenarios, outlined in the chart legend.

Upgrade/50% Seniority Calculator.

Using the data to populate the “Percent Seniority Junior” table, this widget takes expected future hire date or seniority at the beginning of the pages charts to compute an estimated 50% seniority mark based on the models assumptions.

The 50% seniority mark is a rough estimate of when a pilot could expect to upgrade (on average).

Related Articles

SouthWest Pilot Demand – Update

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A lot can change in a matter of days. SouthWest airlines fleet projections have already changed drastically enough to warrant a relook at their pilot demand numbers. The latest from the last article has changed significantly. Whereas they were looking at a longer-term...

Frontier Pilot Demand Projection updated

Frontier Pilot Demand Projection updated

Frontier has remained fairly optimistic, planning on their entire fleet being back in operation by end of summer. Due to the simplicity of their fleet, the assumptions aren't as complicated as some of the other carriers. Simplicity doesn't necessarily transfer into...

A reflective note

A reflective note

The genesis of this website started as an idea born out of a simple desire to help pilots. In a world that seems to be in a constant state of commotion, where media sources often care more about creating soundbites to drive traffic than to uncover a more accurate...

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.” ―

– Theodore Roosevelt, Strenuous Life

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