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Table Of Contents

Introduction

The purpose behind this report is to outline availabe information to calculate general US domestic pilot demand over the next 12 years.

It should be noted the accuracy of these reports are limited by the imperfection and incompleteness in the model. In the process of completing this model, some assumptions have been made regarding various unknowns. These assumptions are contained in the Definitions and Report Methodology sections.

US Airlines Industry Synopsis

Over the last few years a period of consolidation is coming to a close. This has left three large healthy Legacy carriers and as well as a number of domestic carriers. Also as once seen decades ago wholly owned regional carriers are becoming more successful as the Legacy carriers become financially healthy and are once again able to invest in their capital infrastructure. With the exception of SkyWest the remaining regionals have either become privately owned or absorbed by the legacy carriers.

The full affects of the 121 ATP requirements and fatigue mitigation rules have been absorbed by the US Air Carrier market and many carriers are well on their way to establishing long term sustainble pipelines of future aviators.

In the last few years we have seen mainline carriers readjust regional airline aircraft and pilot contracts. The following elements have come to bear:

  • Aging of the 50 Seat fleet is putting pressure on their supporting feeder airlines through increased maintenance costs moving mainline and regional carriers away from these older aircraft. Newer larger regional aircraft are being reporposed to fit these markets.

  • Growing markets have allowed mainline carriers to use larger equipment in markets that once only supported 50 seat aircraft, this upgauging has occured with success across multiple narrowbody fleets.

  • Passenger preference for larger aircraft.

  • Pilot demand at the regional airlines over the next 10 years will be closely tied to attrition by larger airlines and offset slightly by regional airline fleet changes, as they move to larger aircraft. Further consolidation maong regional carriers is likely.

  • Many airlines are in the process of refreshing their fleets, and others are just beginning.

  • Including bonus structures regional carrriers are offering compensation has dramatically improved at the regional carriers of the last few years.

Report Methodology

The report is built off of these components,

  • Aircraft order and retirement schedules, and % fleet growth from industry forecasts.

  • Current and historical pilot staffing at an airline

  • Mandatory pilot retirements or pilot attrition to other airline sectors

By calculating the fleet size over a period of time, the report estimates the number of pilots needed at a specific airline. The report then applies each year's estimated attrition to other segments to determine the total number of pilots needed each year.

Aircraft Order Schedule

The report first identifies the number of pilots needed per aircraft.

There are a number of factors that could change the number of pilots needed amongst airlines.

Some of these factors include:

  • Aircraft utilization - how much the aircraft is flown. Pilots are limited to the number of block hours that can be flown per day; therefore, more flying per day for an aircraft requires more pilots.

  • Pilot schedule efficiency, or how well aircraft routes and schedules are planned to allow the maximum pilot utilization for each day. Pilots are not only limited to between 8 and 9 hours of block hours per day, but they are also limited to a certain number of hours they can remain on duty (10-16 hours).

Pilot Attrition/Retirement Schedules

Pilot attrition is the simplest component to calculate. We know pilots cannot fly Part 121 beyond 65 years of age. The report uses an early out factor to compensate for pilots who leave prior to age 65.

Regional Airline and National Airline Attrition

This calculates the expected attrition from each of these segments based upon fleet size, the percentage of new hires at legacy carriers represented by each segment and percentage an airline represents in its segment.

The total size of the Regional or National airline pilot pool determines what percentage of a given airline can be expected to be hired in a specific year. For example, if there are 10,000 pilots in the regional industry and the Major Airlines need 5,000, it can be expected that roughly 50% of the regional pilot pool would see attrition to the Majors that year. Likewise, if the regional pool is 50,000 pilots and the Majors still need only 5,000 pilots, then it can be assumed only 10% will be hired away during that year.

Percentages of attrition can be applied to each individual airline. As a representation, if the Regional industry is seeing a 10% draw that year from the destination carriers, then a Regional airline with 3,000 pilots can expect to see about 300 or 10% leave.

It is possible that some airlines may experience an unusually large attrition level. This discrepancy could be due to better and more attractive experience, training, or poorer working conditions and pay at their current airline, incentivizing a larger proportion of pilots to search for other employment.

To calculate how large the pool will be for the Majors to pull from in a given year, we compute each segment's size based upon their projected fleet numbers for that year. So, even though a 2,000 pilot draw from the Majors in one year might be 10%, the next year, if the total regional industry has shrunk, the same draw might be a larger percentage.

Definitions

Airline Average Staffing Ratio – The ratio of the number of pilots/aircraft for a specific airline over the last 5 years. If sufficient history or information was not available numbers from similar airlines are used.

Attrition to other airlines – The hiring model in the report projects that a percentage of pilots required in each segment will come from other segments.

Average Upgrade – A point at which the average pilot is expected to upgrade. Pilots may upgrade before or after they reach 50% seniority, which for this report is assumed to be the average upgrade point.

Career Opportunity and Variety – Career options for pilots that may include the ability to upgrade to Captain, opportunity to fly a diversified group of aircraft and a diversified group of bases, and opportunities to move into training, and management positions. This list of career opportunity is not exhaustive. It can include anything that allows a pilot to continue to develop professionally.

Cumulative – A running total of the yearly totals. This could be reflected with aircraft orders or pilots in a table or chart.

Destination Segment Size in aircraft by year – This chart reflects the pilot demand models calculation for the combined airline fleet size by year in that particular segment.

Segment – A segment of the aviation industry where pilots are employed.

  • Destination/Major Carriers – Airlines where pilots statistically stay the remainder of their career.

  • National Carriers – Airlines where a significant percentage of their pilots may choose to make a career, but where the mixture of Compensation, Work Rules, Retirement, Career Opportunity and Variety have not prevented a significant percentage of their pilots from moving on to other Carriers.

  • Regional Carriers – Airlines where the mixture of Compensation, Work Rules, Retirement, Career Opportunity and Variety have made it undesirable for a significant portion of their pilots to choose to make these airlines a career.

  • General Aviation – Includes the following sectors Flight Instruction and Corporate.

  • Flight Instruction – A pool of pilots whose primary flying position is in general aviation flight instruction.

  • Corporate – This sector includes business aviation, fractional and any other Part 91 operation outside of flight instruction.

  • Part 135 – Airlines or flight operations that hold a 135 certificate and thus operate significantly smaller aircraft than the Destination, National, and Regional Carriers.

  • Military – A pool of pilots whose primary flying position is in one of the military branchs or government agencies.

Early Out – Over time history has shown that a percentage of pilots will either retire early, or permanently disqualify for their pilot medical, ending their careers early.

Mandatory Retirements- Refers to retirements required by Federal Aviation Regulations when pilots turn 65. For some of the National and Regional airlines where more accurate numbers were not available an estimated distribution was used derived from peer groups.

New Hire Pilot Events – Total number of new hire events where a pilot may have been hired at an airline. This number does not match total demand required for a sector because pilots may have moved around within a segment creating more new hire events than “Total Pilots” needed to satisfy the pilot needs of the segment.

Percent Attrition - This chart illustrates the percentage of the seniority list each airline is expected to lose each year. At a large airline losing 100 pilots might not be challenging, but at a small airline losing 100 may be catastrophic. This provides an "apples to apples" comparison between airlines.

Pilot/Aircraft Ratio – The ratio of pilots needed to staff each aircraft. The ratio changes among aircraft, business models, and the type of flying done by the aircraft.

Projected Seniority Progression – Projected movement through the seniority system at an airline for a pilot hired at the beginning of the year.

Projected Growth After 2020 (based on current orders ) – This model only takes into consideration known aircraft orders and estimated aircraft retirements to create the fleet projection that the pilot demand model is built on. As pilots move from one airline to another, aircraft orders at one airline may have a trickle down affect on other airlines that may subsequently lose pilots to that airline. If an airline does not have aircraft orders after 2020 then the model assumes stagnant fleet growth.

Fleet ( Boeing's 2018 Fleet Projection ) After 2020 – Like the previous model it assumes current projected aircraft orders and retirements up to 2020. After 2020 instead of applying estimated fleet projections the model applies a straight percentage of 1.9% to Destination and National carriers as the assumed growth that the pilot demand model is built on. Regional Airline models also follow Boeing's projection, which shows a small reduction on a year by year basis.

Training Bubble – As airlines increase hiring, training pilots come off line as they enter training for what can be a month to two months depending on the type of training. This removes pilots from line operations where they fly revenue flights for the company. As training increases the company needs more pilots to offset the loss in productivity experienced as pilots enter training. The reverse is true when a company may decrease or eliminate training. The training bubble attempts to project how the demand for pilots change based on changes in pilot hiring.

Total Demand – The total demand for pilots needed to satisfy the airline's requirements for pilots.

Total Number of Pilots in Segment - This chart reflects the total size of the combined pilot groups in this particular segment.

Work Rules – Work rules usually determine the quality of life a pilot experiences at an airline. Some work rules prevent the pilots from being penalized for low efficiency trips, others may offer a level of trip flexibility to trade trips, and still others may offer other benefits to the pilot's schedule.

Executive Summary

Destination Carrier

Executive Summary –

.

National Carrier

Executive Summary –

Regional Carrier

Executive Summary –

Audries Aircraft Analysis - In Partnership with KitDarby.com


Destination Carrier Analysis



Alaska Airlines

American Airlines

Delta Air Lines

Hawaiian Airlines

SouthWest Airlines

United Airlines

Federal Express

UPS


Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand

Picture of Alaska Jet
Photo By Alaskan Dude "flickr"

AircraftNumber
Boeing 737 700 14
Boeing 737 800 61
Boeing 737 900 91
Airbus A319 100 10
Airbus A320 200 53
Airbus A321 NEO 9
Total 238









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


Alaska Airlines Summary

The merge continues in 2020 with integration of the Alaska and Virgin American operation, and it should be known by 2020 whether Alaska will retain the two fleet types or simply to one. Current commentary has suggested if they maintain one fleet type they will keep the Airbus aircraft until leases expire around 2030.

With the current challenges facing the 737 MAX from Boeing it's likely management teams will be more cautious when simplifying their fleet to one fleet. While it may be possible to see Alaska move again towards one fleet, its likely they will keep two.

Alaska is planning above average fleet growth for the coming years and that is refelcted in the Aircraft Order/Retirement model.


Alaska Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 2888 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 238


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Alaska Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Boeing 737 MAX 902019-08-101212800032
Airbus A320 NEO2019-08-10101010100040
Total222218100072

Alaska Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Alaska Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 2222181000972

Alaska Airlines Charts

 



American Airlines Pilot Demand

http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/AeroIcarusAA.jpg
AircraftNumber
Embraer 190 195 20
Boeing 737 800 304
Boeing 737 MAX 8 24
Airbus A319 100 129
Airbus A320 200 48
Airbus A321 200 219
Airbus A321 NEO 6
Boeing 757 200 34
Boeing 767 300 21
Airbus A330 200 15
Airbus A330 300 9
Boeing 777 200 47
Boeing 777 300 20
Boeing 787 8 20
Boeing 787 9 22
Total 938









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


American Airlines Summary

American Airlines fleet plan proved difficult to estimate due to the shear volume of aircraft on order and that could be retired. Percent Fleet growth appears to be just above industry average.

American Airlines Pilot/Aircraft ratio on the report rests at about 13.4.

Mandatory retirements should continue to pick up over the next few years and look to eventually peak in 2023.

Training bubble demand looks to grow next year as pilot demand picks up and remains high for the foreseeable future.

The report shows pilots that are hired this year can expect average upgrades to occur in 7 years. This seems to be constant across both growth models.


American Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 15176 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 16.2 --- Current Fleet Number: 938


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

American Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A321 NEO62020-05-1400202020464
Boeing 737 MAX 8242020-05-14002020201676
Boeing 787 8202020-05-1400555520
Boeing 787 9222020-05-1400444416
Total0049494929176

American Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Airbus A330 30092020-05-149000009
Boeing 757 200342020-05-14340000034
Embraer 190 195202020-05-14200000020
Airbus A330 200152020-05-14150000015
Boeing 767 300212020-05-14210000021
Boeing 737 8003042020-05-155026000076
Total149260000175

American Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss -149-26494949290.11

American Airlines Charts

 



Delta Air Lines Pilot Demand

Picture of Delta Jet
By Aero Icarus of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Airbus A220 100 20
Airbus A350 900 13
Boeing 717 91
MD 80 Series 71
MD 90 Series 34
Boeing 737 700 10
Boeing 737 800 77
Boeing 737 900 130
Airbus A319 100 57
Airbus A320 200 62
Airbus A321 200 87
Boeing 757 200 111
Boeing 757 300 16
Boeing 767 300 56
Boeing 767 400 21
Airbus A330 200 11
Airbus A330 300 31
Airbus A350 900 13
Boeing 777 200 18
Total 929









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


Delta Air Lines Summary

Delta is well under way with beginning it's fleet revitalization plans. Capital outlay usually runs in cycles paired with profitability and Delta is no exception. The MD88 fleet is forecast to be retired by 2020 but that could be flexible depending on Delta's capacity needs. The MD 90 retirement is unknown but Delta says the plan is to accelerate it. Recently it was forecast to retire in 2020-2023, but that has also been a moving target.

MD88 and MD90 replacements are expected to be 737-900, A220-100/300, and A321's

Over the next few years there will be increased pressure to also replace the sizable 757 and 767 fleets, and while Delta has been successful at operating older aircraft eventually those aircraft will need to be replaced.

Due to the initial phase of Delta's fleet replacement plan, it is difficult to forecast aircraft order and retirement rates. It is likely they will continue to match their Capacity growth with slightly above average expected growth rate, due to their current margin advantage among their competitors. As their competitors catch up to them it is unknown whether they will maintain that advantage.


Delta Air Lines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 14600 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 15.7 --- Current Fleet Number: 929


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Delta Air Lines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A321 200872020-05-151302070040
Airbus A330 900 NEO2020-05-1550010101237
Airbus A220 100202020-05-151101400025
Airbus A321 NEO02020-05-15000252550100
Airbus A220 3002020-05-1500202010050
Airbus A350 900132020-05-15000015924
Boeing 717912020-05-150011826045
Total29065708671321

Delta Air Lines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Boeing 757 2001112020-05-1528015202017100
Boeing 767 300562020-05-1528000141456
MD 80 Series712020-05-14710000071
MD 90 Series342020-05-15340000034
Boeing 717912020-05-15450000045
Boeing 777 200182020-05-15180000018
Airbus A320 200622020-05-155012000062
Total2741215203431386

Delta Air Lines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss -245-1250505240-8.1-65

Delta Air Lines Charts

 



Hawaiian Airlines Pilot Demand

Picture of Hawaiian Jet
By Dylan Ashe of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Boeing 717 20
Airbus A321 NEO 13
Airbus A330 200 24
Total 57









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


Hawaiian Airlines Summary

The last of the A321 NEO's should arrive in 2020, as Hawaiian phases out its B767-300 fleet. As Hawaiian faces fresh competition from SouthWest it will be interesting to see how they adapt to meet customers needs and set apart their product. The A321 NEO's may be part of their approach to better compete with new competition.

The 787 could be used as fleet growth or replacement depending on what the company decides to do with their A330 aircraft. For now the Aircraft Order/Retirement plan for the report reflects the 787 as half growth and half replacement.


Hawaiian Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 829 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 14.5 --- Current Fleet Number: 57


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Hawaiian Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A321 NEO132019-08-105000005
Boeing 787 902018-05-2304420010
Total54420015

Hawaiian Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Airbus A330 200242019-08-100122005
Total0122005

Hawaiian Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 5320001.310

Hawaiian Airlines Charts

 



Southwest Airlines Pilot Demand

Picture of Southwest Jet
By Aero Icarus of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Boeing 737 700 500
Boeing 737 800 207
Boeing 737 MAX 8 34
Total 741









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


Southwest Airlines Summary

For a few reasons forecasting Southwest fleet growth over a given period of time is difficult. For now this report assumes that the growth will match closely with industry average fleet growth.

Southwest sees some of the lowest Pilot/Aircraft ratios among its peers. Southwest's business model inherently lends itself to the efficient use of pilots, allowing it to have high aircraft utilization with fewer pilots.

Southwest will have a retirement wave, but the wave is forecast a few years later than most of the other mainline carriers. This wave looks to peak in 2027.

The training bubble should be nominal thanks to the model's smooth fleet growth and smooth pilot demographics that allow for a more gentle hiring wave.


Southwest Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 9820 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13.3 --- Current Fleet Number: 741


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Southwest Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Boeing 737 MAX 8342020-05-200035404040155
Boeing 737 MAX 72020-05-200015150030
Total0050554040185

Southwest Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Boeing 737 7005002020-06-04151525252525130
Total151525252525130

Southwest Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss -15-15253015156.955

Southwest Airlines Charts

 



United Airlines Pilot Demand

Picture of United Jet
By Aero Icarus of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Boeing 737 MAX 9 14
Boeing 737 700 40
Boeing 737 800 141
Boeing 737 MAX 8 14
Boeing 737 900 136
Airbus A319 100 74
Airbus A320 200 99
Boeing 757 200 56
Boeing 757 300 21
Boeing 767 300 37
Boeing 767 400 16
Boeing 777 200 74
Boeing 777 300 18
Boeing 787 8 12
Boeing 787 9 25
Total 777









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


United Airlines Summary

Fleet change continues at United as they seek expand their network to more closely match their legacy counterparts.

Many aircraft are on order, but we have seen a number of existing aircraft retired in order to keep a fresher fleet. For example 2019 saw some A319 retirements as the airline offloaded aircraft that were approaching more expensive maintenance checks.

Fleet flexibility across airlines is giving them new flexibility to quickly grow or reduce flying as markets demand.


United Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 12856 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 16.5 --- Current Fleet Number: 777


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

United Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A350 90002020-05-2000088824
Boeing 787 102020-05-20130010014
Boeing 787 9252020-05-205003008
Boeing 737 MAX 9142020-05-200025252525100
Airbus A319 100742020-05-200012100022
Boeing 737 700402020-05-20001090019
Boeing 737 MAX 1002019-08-13002020202080
Total18067765353267

United Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Boeing 757 200562020-05-20506000056
Boeing 757 300212020-05-20210000021
Boeing 767 400162020-05-20160000016
Boeing 767 300372020-05-20370000037
Boeing 777 200742020-05-20500000050
Airbus A320 200992020-05-20450000045
Boeing 737 700402020-05-20200000020
Total23960000245

United Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss -221-6677653532.822

United Airlines Charts

 



Federal Express Pilot Demand

Picture of Fedex Jet
By Curimedia of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Boeing 757 200 119
Boeing 767 300 57
Airbus A300 600 68
Airbus A310 200 5
MD 10 and 11 Series 98
Boeing 777 200 34
Total 381









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


Federal Express Summary

As Federal Express takes on mostly second hand aircraft, fleet projections can be difficult. For now, with estimated aircraft deliveries and retirements, fleet growth is projected to increase slightly over the next few years. This could easily change if FedEx brings on additional aircraft through other unknown arrangements.

Pilot/Aircraft Ratio is expected to remain unchanged.

Mandatory Retirements are expected to be consistent, slowly peaking to about 230 pilots per year in 2024.

The training bubble should remain fairly irrelevant.

Total pilot hiring demand should be light in 2015 but grow throughout the next ten years to over 300 pilots per year based on the reports assumptions.

Pilots hired this year are forecast to expect an average upgrade in approximately 8 years.


Federal Express - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 4572 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12 --- Current Fleet Number: 381


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Federal Express Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Boeing 767 300572018-05-2312121200036
Boeing 777 200342018-05-2333330012
Total15151530048

Federal Express Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Airbus A310 30002018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Federal Express Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 151515300648

Federal Express Charts

 



UPS Pilot Demand

Picture of UPS Jet
By Andrew W. Sieber of Flickr

AircraftNumber
Boeing 757 200 75
Boeing 767 300 62
MD 10 and 11 Series 37
Boeing 747 400 13
Boeing 747 8 5
Total 192









*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.


UPS Summary

The report has no fleet forecast for UPS. As a purchaser of second hand aircraft, predicting future “orders” becomes difficult as they are often made without much lead time.

Pilot/Aircraft Ratio is expected to remain consistent.

Mandatory Retirements are expected to remain steady as they grow to their peak of 170+ pilots in 2026.

The training bubble should remain irrelevant.

Due to the mandatory at 65 retirements as the primary driver for new pilots, it is expected that this will remain steady and peak in 2026.

The current forecast shows pilots who are hired this year can expect average upgrade to be in 10 – 11 years.


UPS - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 2725 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 14.2 --- Current Fleet Number: 192


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

UPS Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Boeing 747 852018-05-2355500015
Boeing 767 300622018-05-230000000
Total55500015

UPS Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

UPS Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 5550001.915

UPS Charts

 

Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among Major Airlines

Major Airlines - Retirements

Mandatory Retirements | Percent of Total Pilots - AGE 65 Google Visualization API Sample

Major Airline Growth

Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growth - Total Pilots at end of 2018 107,890 Google Visualization API Sample

Total Pilot Demand for Major Airlines

Google Visualization API Sample

Destination Segment size in Pilots by Year

Destination Segment size in aircraft by Year


National Carrier Analysis



Allegiant Air

Frontier Airlines

JetBlue Airways

Spirit Airlines

Sun Country
Picture of Allegiant Jet
By Aero Icarus of "flickr"

Allegiant Air Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Airbus A319 100 37
Airbus A320 200 54
Total 91










Allegiant Air Summary

In 2019 Allegiant made the transistion to a full Airbus Fleet. The have a handful of orders waiting to be delivered, but timing on those and other orders are difficult to predict as Allegiant often looks for second hand aircraft and usually avoids the long lines for new orders.

For now the average growth rate is a reasonable expectation for a carrier like Allegiant and has been applied in the pilot hiring model



Allegiant Air- Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 910 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10 --- Current Fleet Number: 91


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Allegiant Air Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A320 200542019-08-132200004
Airbus A319 100372019-08-131000001
Total3200005

Allegiant Air Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Allegiant Air Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 3200000.65

Allegiant Air Charts

 

Picture of Frontier Jet
By Yuxi3200 of Flickr

Frontier Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Airbus A319 100 6
Airbus A320 200 64
Airbus A321 200 21
Total 91










Frontier Airlines Summary

Frontier does have aircraft on order. The report also reflects some aircraft orders towards the end of the decade, but aircraft retirement projections are unknown, which causes a “bubble” in fleet growth and hiring in 2019. It is very likely that some of the older Airbus aircraft will be retired as those new aircraft come on property.

Frontier Pilot/Aircraft ratio is almost exactly aligned with their historical ratio.

Like many of the Regional and other National carriers there are retirements expected, but they remain low.

The training bubble shouldn't be a factor until 2019-2020 if the aircraft on order end up being growth instead of fleet replacement.

Average upgrade could be in as little as 3 years for a pilot hired in 2015, if attrition to other carriers is significant.



Frontier Airlines- Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 1410 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 15.5 --- Current Fleet Number: 91


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Frontier Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A321 NEO02020-05-2900006612
Airbus A320 NEO2020-05-2990555529
Airbus A321 NEO02020-05-2900666624
Total901111171765

Frontier Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Airbus A319 10062020-05-296000006
Total6000006

Frontier Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 30111117177.459

Frontier Airlines Charts

 

Picture of JetBlue Jet
Photo By Pylon 757 "flickr"

JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 190 195 60
Airbus A320 200 130
Airbus A321 200 63
Airbus A321 NEO 1
Total 254










JetBlue Airways Summary



JetBlue Airways- Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 3891 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 15.3 --- Current Fleet Number: 254


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

JetBlue Airways Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A220 3002020-05-2017815151460
Airbus A321 NEO12020-05-2071071010650
Total81715252520110

JetBlue Airways Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Embraer 190 195602020-05-204218000060
Total4218000060

JetBlue Airways Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss -34-1152525206.350

JetBlue Airways Charts

 

Picture of Spirit Jet
By Aero Icarus of Flickr

Spirit Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Airbus A319 100 31
Airbus A320 200 74
Airbus A321 200 30
Total 135










Spirit Airlines Summary

With Spirit Airlines still in the middle of its growth phase and the mature business phase looking to be a few years out it see's the highest growth percentages of any airline in its segment.

Among Spirit Airlines peers it has a high pilot to aircraft ratio of 14.8. It is possible this high ratio may be a result of Spirit's efforts to preemptively staff for a rapidly growing airline.

For now Spirit airlines mandatory pilot retirements are unknown.

As Spirit Airline's training gradually cools down over the next decade it is expected that the training bubble will be absorbed.

Average upgrade at Spirit Airlines for a pilot hired this year is forecast to be at about 2-3 years.



Spirit Airlines- Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 2164 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 16 --- Current Fleet Number: 135


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Spirit Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Airbus A320 200742018-05-230000000
Airbus A320 NEO2017-02-061618000034
Total1618000034

Spirit Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Airbus A319 100312018-05-235000005
Total5000005

Spirit Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 111800003.629

Spirit Airlines Charts

 

Picture of Sun Country Jet
By Aero Icarus of Flickr

Sun Country Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Boeing 737 800 30
Total 30










Sun Country Summary

This report assumes Sun Country takes delivery of 2 aircraft per year for the foreseeable future.

The airline is within 11 pilots of the historical pilot/aircraft ratio.

Based on the forecasts assumptions upgrade for pilots hired this year is estimated to be 3 years. It should be noted that with smaller fleet sizes, changes that would be considered minor at other airlines have a more drastic affect on upgrade opportunities.



Sun Country- Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 343 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 30


The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.

The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.9%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical or who retire early.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Sun Country Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Boeing 737 800302018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Sun Country Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Sun Country Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Sun Country Charts

 

Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among National Airlines

Attrition to Major/Destination airlines among National Airlines

Attrition to Major/Destination airlines | Percent of Total Pilots Google Visualization API Sample

National Carrier Growth

Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growth Google Visualization API Sample

Total Pilot Demand for National Airlines

Google Visualization API Sample

National Segment size in Pilots by Year

- Total Pilots at end of 2018 > 8,441

National Segment size in aircraft by Year


Regional Carrier Analysis



Air Wisconsin Airlines

Envoy Air

Compass Airlines

Endeavor Air

GoJet Airlines

Horizon Airlines

Mesa Airlines

PSA Airlines

Republic Airlines

SkyWest Airlines

ExpressJet Airlines

Piedmont

Silver Airways

Trans States

CommutAir


Picture of Air Wisconsin Jet
By BriYYZ of Flickr

Air Wisconsin Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 200 65
Total 65














Air Wisconsin Summary

Air Wisconsins fleet is projected to remain stagnant as it has over the last few years. It was expected that they would take delivery of additional CRJ 200 aircraft for Delta but that did not materalize. Without additional aircraft on order the report assumes the aircraft gradually retire as they hit their life limits.

The Pilot to Aircraft Ratio holds at about 12.

Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, but it can be expected that there will be some retirements given Air Wisconsin's storied length of operation.

Air Wisconsin like other stagnant regional airlines are forecast to see a training bubble driven primarily by changes in hiring from Destination and National carriers.

Average Upgrade is forecast for a pilot hired this year to be around 4 years due mainly to attrition to other carriers.



Air Wisconsin Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 547 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 8.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 65


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Air Wisconsin Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Air Wisconsin Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Air Wisconsin Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Air Wisconsin Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Eagle Jet
By Ron Cogswell of Flickr

Envoy Air Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 140 25
Embraer 145 82
CRJ 700 13
Embraer 175 51
Total 171














Envoy Air Summary

Envoy is expected to experience large fleet changes in the short term. CRJ aircraft expected to quickly make their way to PSA, the ERJ 140 will go away with some of the ERJ 145 aircraft, and ERJ175 aircraft expected to come on property. The shift follows the regional industry trend of wholly owned subsidiaries operating one or two new fleet types while outsourcing the rest to contract carriers.

Current Staffing rests at about 10.6 pilots per aircraft. For the now model has not taken into account the flow through agreement to American since it is unknown how that will affect Envoy attrition to other airlines. Matching optimum staffing levels with active fleets at Envoy may be a real struggle as the carrier goes through this transition.

Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, but it can be expected that there will be some retirements given Envoy's storied length of operation.

The training bubble will likely see wild swings throughout the next few years if the American follows through on their announced fleet plans for Envoy.

Average upgrade times look to be at 6-7 years for a pilot brought on the property this year.



Envoy Air - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 2500 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 14.6 --- Current Fleet Number: 171


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Envoy Air Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Embraer 175512018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Envoy Air Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
CRJ 700132018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Envoy Air Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Envoy Air Charts

 



Picture of Compass Jet
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr

Compass Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 175 56
Total 56














Compass Airlines Summary

Compass's only aircraft on order are 20 ERJ 175 with American. This is expected to be growth and not fleet replacement.

Compass's pilot to aircraft ratio is assumed to be at about 12.6.

Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, and given Compass's relatively short time as an airline are expected to be very low for the foreseeable future.

The training bubble may become a factor next year after the remaining ERJ 175 are delivered, but with attrition high to other airlines it will likely be absorbed over time.

Average upgrade times could be as low as 1 and a half to 2 years for pilots hired this year at Compass.



Compass Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 663 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.8 --- Current Fleet Number: 56


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Compass Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Compass Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Compass Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Compass Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Endeavor Jet
By Lord of Wings of Flickr

Endeavor Air Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 200 43
CRJ 700 5
CRJ 900 109
Total 157














Endeavor Air Summary

Fleet planning at Endeavor should become very predictable after the 81st CRJ 900 comes online and the last CRJ 200 leaves.

The Pilot to Aircraft ratios are estimated to hold at around 9.1.

Mandatory pilot retirements at this time are unknown but could become a factor as time moves on, because of the Endeavor pilot groups long history as Colgan, Mesaba, and Pinnacle Airlines.

After the last of the fleet modifications the training bubble should easily be absorbed by forecast attrition to other carriers.

Average upgrade times for pilots hired this year are forecasted to be around 4-5 years.



Endeavor Air - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 1905 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 157


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Endeavor Air Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Endeavor Air Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Endeavor Air Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Endeavor Air Charts

 



Picture of Go Jet
By Lord of Wings of Flickr

GoJet Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 700 47
CRJ 900 7
Total 54














GoJet Airlines Executive Summary

GoJet is expecting to receive CRJ 900 aircraft to fly for Delta starting in 2015.

Pilot to Aircraft Ratio looks to be around 10.9.

Mandatory pilot retirements at this time are unknown.

The Training bubble is forecasted to be irrelevant.

Average upgrade times at GoJet for a pilot hired this year are forecasted to be between 3-4 years.



GoJet Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 600 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 54


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

GoJet Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

GoJet Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

GoJet Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

GoJet Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Horizon Q400
By John Murphy of Flickr

Horizon Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Q 400 32
Embraer 175 30
Total 62














Horizon Airlines Summary

The fleet plan remains stable with Q400's.

The pilot to aircraft ratio for Horizon looks to be around 11.7.

Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown but likely due to the length of this airlines history and the tendency for pilots to make Horizon a career.

The training bubble should be irrelevant.

Average upgrade time for pilots hired this year at Horizon are forecasted to be between 3 and 4 years.



Horizon Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 850 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13.7 --- Current Fleet Number: 62


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Horizon Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Embraer 175302018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Horizon Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Q 400322018-05-230000000
Total0000000

Horizon Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Horizon Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Mesa Jet
By James Willamor of Flickr

Mesa Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 200 1
CRJ 700 20
CRJ 900 64
Embraer 175 60
Total 145














Mesa Airlines Summary

Mesa airlines continues to see growth as the remaining United 175 aircraft come on property. After that Mesa is not forecast to have additional growth.

The Pilot to Aircraft ratio is estimated to be somewhere around 9.

Mandatory Retirements are unknown.

The training bubble looks to slow down hiring for Mesa in 2016 as the final 175 aircraft come on property.

Average upgrade for a pilot hired this year at Mesa is forecast to be between 2 ½ and 3 ½ years.



Mesa Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 1200 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 8.3 --- Current Fleet Number: 145


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Mesa Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Mesa Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Mesa Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Mesa Airlines Charts

 



Picture of PSA Jet
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr

PSA Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 200 35
CRJ 700 49
CRJ 900 59
Total 143














PSA Airlines Summary

Unless CRJ 200 aircraft start retiring this year PSA is forecasted to see extraordinary growth. The growth is forecasted to almost double the size of PSA in one year. This presents significant hurdles to the company as the training department at PSA attempts to mobilize sufficient resources to adequately train the incoming pilots.

The Pilot to Aircraft ratio seems to around 11.

While training will remain high in 2015 and 2016, the reduction in growth looks to create a large training bubble, resulting in a little less hiring than standard in 2017.

Upgrade opportunities for the forecasted numbers may come as early as 1 year for properly qualified pilots.



PSA Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 1916 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 143


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

PSA Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
CRJ 700492018-05-230000000
Total0000000

PSA Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

PSA Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

PSA Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Republic Jet
By cliff1066 of Flickr

Republic Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 170 57
Embraer 175 132
Total 189














Republic Airlines Summary

Republic continues to make its way through a fleet transition period. The ERJ140 aircraft have retired along with many of the ERJ145, the remaining ERJ145 with Delta appear to be sticking around. Meanwhile Republic continues to bolster its E175 fleet through agreements with United and American.

The Pilot to Aircraft ratio is estimated to be around 9.

Republic may need up to 350+ pilots this year.

Average Upgrade times at Republic could be as low as 3 years.



Republic Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 2445 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 189


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Republic Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Republic Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Republic Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Republic Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Skywest Jet
By cliff1066 of Flickr

SkyWest Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
CRJ 200 193
CRJ 700 126
CRJ 900 42
Embraer 175 151
Total 512














SkyWest Airlines Summary

As SkyWest takes delivery of the remaining ERJ 175 aircraft on order with United they are removing the EMB 120 fleet. This should even out their fleet numbers. As with many of the regional airlines that do contract flying it is unknown if and for how long their aircraft will be renewed.

Pilot to Aircraft ratio at SkyWest is estimated to be around 10.9.

Due to SkyWest's fairly smooth fleet transitions the training bubble really shouldn't be much of a factor. However when an airline increases or decreases the number of fleet types the amount of training that is done internally is affected.

Average upgrade times for pilots hired this year at SkyWest look to be around 3-4 years.



SkyWest Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 5027 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 9.8 --- Current Fleet Number: 512


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

SkyWest Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Embraer 1751512018-05-230000000
Total0000000

SkyWest Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

SkyWest Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

SkyWest Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Express Jet
By redlegsfan21 of Flickrr

ExpressJet Airlines Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 145 101
CRJ 200 13
Embraer 175 10
Total 124














ExpressJet Summary

It is anticipated that most of the E145 aircraft that approach their contract expiration will not be renewed. The result of this is an aggressive fleet reduction. However the report feels a loss of over 150+ aircraft in 2017 that still have air-frame life is unlikely even though it is reported on the most recent 10-K. A loss in capacity of this kind of magnitude would be difficult for the Major airline to absorb and it is likely that some of those aircraft will be renewed. For now the report spreads out some of the 2017 reduction. The majority of CRJ 200 aircraft also coming up for rebid are not expected to be renewed. ExpressJet was awarded 15 E145 aircraft with American out of DFW, which will cushion some of their reductions.

ExpressJet's current pilot to aircraft ratio looks to be around 10.9. ExpressJet is experiencing above average attrition to the major airlines, it is not expected that they will need to furlough pilots.

Training bubble demand looks to be minimal.

Unless something changes in the fleet forecast, demand for new pilots is expected to pick back up in 2018-2019.

Upgrades based on average attrition are forecasted by the report to be at about 7-8 years. If attrition continues to be above average then that number could drop significantly.



ExpressJet Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 1220 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 9.8 --- Current Fleet Number: 124


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

ExpressJet Airlines Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

ExpressJet Airlines Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

ExpressJet Airlines Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

ExpressJet Airlines Charts

 



Picture of Piedmont Turbo Prop
By James Willamor of Flickr

Piedmont Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 145 60
Total 60














Piedmont Summary

Piedmont's fleet is expected to lose 1 Dash 8 100 this year, and then commence the delivery of 20 E145 from Envoy in 2016. It is unknown whether the E145 will replace the Dash 8 100.

Pilot/Aircraft ratio rests around 7.9 which is above average for most turboprop operators.

The training bubble will likely be a factor during 2016 and 2017 as Piedmont begins to take delivery of the E145 aircraft, even if the airline retires the Dash 8 100.

Upgrade opportunities are forecasted to accelerate with the delivery of the E145 aircraft, to 2-3 years for pilots hired this year.



Piedmont - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 746 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 60


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Piedmont Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Embraer 145602017-02-070000000
Total0000000

Piedmont Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Piedmont Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Piedmont Charts

 



Picture of Silver Airways
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr

Silver Airways Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Saab 340 21
ATR 42 3
Total 24














Silver Airways Summary

Silver Airways is privately held, making it difficult to determine fleet projections. For now the forecast assumes Silver Airways fleet will remain at its current size.

Silver Airway's Pilot/Aircraft ratio is close to standard for a turbo-prop operator and rests around 8.

Upgrade times at Silver Airways are forecasted to be around 3-4 years.



Silver Airways - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 169 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 7 --- Current Fleet Number: 24


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Silver Airways Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

Silver Airways Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Silver Airways Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Silver Airways Charts

 



Picture of Trans States Jet
By Brian of Flickr

Trans States Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 145 46
Total 46














Trans States Airlines Summary

Similar to PSA, TSA is expected to see extraordinary growth the next year. With the additional ERJ 145 slated to come on property from United they could more than double in size in a year. As with PSA this poses a unique set of problems for the airline as it seeks to attract, and train this many pilots.

Pilot to Aircraft ratio at TSA is estimated to be about 10.9.

After the 2015 aircraft arrive the number of pilots needed in 2016 is expected to be much lower due to the elimination of a very large training bubble.

Average upgrade could be as little as a year for those pilots qualified to apply for Captain positions.



Trans States - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 600 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13 --- Current Fleet Number: 46


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

Trans States Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Embraer 145462015-05-190000000
MRJ 2014-03-030000000
Total0000000

Trans States Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

Trans States Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal
Net Gain/-Loss 00000000

Trans States Charts

 



Picture of CommutAir
By Wikipedia

CommutAir Pilot Demand


AircraftNumber
Embraer 145 35
Total 35














CommutAir Summary

Waiting for update



CommutAir - Pilot Hiring Table

Number of Pilots: 404 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.5 --- Current Fleet Number: 35


The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.9% after 2020.

Google Visualization API Sample

*Early Out- Estimated number of pilots no longer able to hold a medical/ who retire early or simply change careers. Regional airlines inherently experience more washout due to the availability of other career alternatives that are able to match or exceed the low pay found the first few years at the regional airlines.

Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions



Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.

CommutAir Aircraft Orders

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025 Total
Total0000000

CommutAir Aircraft Retirements

AircraftOn PropertyUpdated Date202020212022202320242025Total
Total0000000

CommutAir Order/Retirement Total

202020212022202320242025AverageTotal

CommutAir Charts

 

Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among Regional Airlines

Attrition Among Regional Airlines

Attrition to other Segments | Percent of Total Pilots Google Visualization API Sample
Attrition to other Segments | Percent of Total Pilots Google Visualization API Sample

The "percent attrition from each regional airline" chart is reflective of the percentage of the seniority list that is expected to leave that year. Due to our lack of retirement projections for the regional airlines the percentage is the same across each regional.


Regional Carrier Growth

Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growth Google Visualization API Sample
Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growth Google Visualization API Sample

Total Pilot Demand for Regional Airlines

Google Visualization API Sample
Google Visualization API Sample

Regional Segment size in Pilots by Year

- Total Pilots at end of 2018 > 20,755

Regional Segment size in aircraft by Year


Military


Picture of United States Navy
By United States Navy


























This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the military to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the military.


Corporate


By Global Jet of Flickr
By Global Jet of Flickr


























This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the corporate sector to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the corporate industry in the US.


Part 135


By Massachusetts Office of Travel & Tourism
By Massachusetts Office of Travel & Tourism


























This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the Part 135 to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the part 135 operators in the US.


Flight Instruction


By Lwp Kommunikáció of Flick
By Lwp Kommunikáció of Flick


























This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the flight instruction industry to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the flight instructor industry in the US.


Total General Aviation Demand


This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the general aviation industry to the part 121 airline sector. The general aviation industry represents the demand from the corporate and flight instructor sectors. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the general aviation industry in the US.


Total Comparison Among All Segments


Draw from each segment to Support 121 Pilot Attrition and Growth

Google Visualization API Sample

Part 121 Industry size in Pilots by Year

Google Visualization API Sample

Part 121 Industry size in Pilots by Year- Broken down by Retirements, and Growth

Pilots needed through 2032

Current Pilots137,086
Retirements-44,644
Current pilots remaining92,441
Pilots needed:
Pilots for Growth6,613
Pilots for Retirement+44,644
Total Pilot Demand51,257

Part 121 Industry size in aircraft by Year

Google Visualization API Sample

Total Pilot Demand Broken Down By Revenue and Aircraft Category

Airlines with over 1 Billion $ in Revenue and Aircraft larger than 100 Seats.

Legacy Airlines

Pilot Size: 46,395 Google Visualization API Sample

Cargo Operations

Pilot Size: 7,549 Google Visualization API Sample

Low Cost Carrier Airlines

Pilot Size: 8,099 Google Visualization API Sample

Comparison

Pilot Size: 62,044

It should be noted that the total and cumulative numbers in the following table do not reflect the amount of pilots needed in the Part 121 sector, but represent the amount of new hire training events projected to occur as pilots move into and between industry segments.

Google Visualization API Sample

Airlines with Between 100 Million and 1 Billion $ in Revenue or do not operate aircraft larger than 100 Seats and have over 100 Million in Revenue.

Pilot Size: 19,783 Google Visualization API Sample
Google Visualization API Sample

TurboProp

Pilot Size: 912 Google Visualization API Sample

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