Frontier has remained fairly optimistic, planning on their entire fleet being back in operation by end of summer. Due to the simplicity of their fleet, the assumptions aren’t as complicated as some of the other carriers. Simplicity doesn’t necessarily transfer into accuracy, but it does make it easier to see the moving parts.
What do we know?
- Frontier was already planning to retire/sell their remaining A319 aircraft, which are only a handful of aircraft. Those aircraft are currently parked awaiting their departure to other carriers.
- Frontier has communicated as late as May that they still plan to have all aircraft in operation by end of summertime 2020.
- Besides the A319 fleet, Frontier’s fleet is very young averaging at 3.8 years old.
- Based on the airlines’ fleet age and the optimism of their management it’s unlikely we will see many more aircraft retire after the A319’s are gone.
- To be conservative the model assumes the current orders will be delayed till 2022 when this period of low demand can be worked through. There still remains a possibility some of the NEO aircraft could arrive in 2021 depending on demand.