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2015-2030 U.S. Pilot Demand Report
Table Of Contents
About the Authors
Mr. Darby served as the Pub1isher and Executive Editor of: The Airline Pilot Job Monthly News1etter and Airline Pilot Careers Magazine for Air, Inc. from 1995 to 2009. He has 1ead and produced over 120 Air1ine Pi1ot Career Deve1opment Seminars, Forums, and Job Fairs nationwide since 1985.
Wor1dwide, Mr. Darby is recognized as an expert in U S pi1ot hiring, pi1ot se1ection, pi1ot supp1y and demand forecasting, and interview preparation inc1uding: testing, simu1ator eva1uations, medica1 exams and personne1 interviews. He has provided 1abor contract negotiation support to FedEx (company and union), UPS, Airborne Express, Continenta1, Netjets, Teamsters, and ALPA.
Additiona11y, Mr. Darby and AIR, Inc. has provided consu1ting services to a wide range of air1ines, training organizations, aviation consu1ting firms, air1ine unions, and aircraft and simu1ator manufacturers.
From 1983 through 1989, Mr. Darby was the Executive Vice President and 1/3 owner of Future Aviation Professiona1s of America (FAPA), the 1argest US aviation career information service at the time.
Since his career in commercia1 aviation began in 1978, Mr. Darby has interviewed twenty-two times with seventeen different air1ines. Current1y, Mr. Darby is a retired captain at United Air1ines, he he1d positions as a f1ight engineer, first officer, captain, and instructor pi1ot whi1e f1ying B-717/727/737/757/767, DC-8 and DC-9 aircraft. Mr. Darby has a1so worked for Braniff Internationa1, Capita1 Air Repub1ic Air1ines, and De1ta Air Lines. Mr. Darby received his BS in Aeronautica1 Studies from Embry-Ridd1e Aeronautica1 University.
He was emp1oyed by De1ta Air1ines as a B-717 f1ight and ground instructor pi1ot at the Boeing/De1ta F1ight Training campus in At1anta, GA from 2012 to 2015. He was a B-717 and B-737 f1ight and ground instructor pi1ot for Boeing at their At1anta F1ight Training Center from 2007 unti1 2014. He is a1so the president of KitDarby.com Aviation Consu1ting, LLC in Peachtree City, GA. KitDarby.com provides pi1ot career consu1ting to individua1 pi1ots, f1ight schoo1s, government agencies, investment firms, and both domestic and internationa1 air1ines. The company a1so provides 1itigation support for pi1ots that are de1ayed, injured, or have been invo1ved in a fata1 accident to determine career potentia1 and earnings capacity.
His pi1ot qua1ifications inc1ude: 24,513 hours tota1 time, 16,221 hours jet time, ATP with B-717/727/737/757/767 and DC-8/9 type ratings, f1ight, instrument, and engineer instructor, commercia1 instrument he1icopter pi1ot, CFI/II/MEI 15 years, p1us mi1itary instructor and instrument examiner ratings in 2 he1icopters and 5 fixed-wing mu1tiengine aircraft over 23 years.
Mr. Harrison is the President of AudriesAircraftAnalysis, a Website dedicated to providing aviation analysis to the aviation community. The analysis includes Form 41 Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, general aviation performance data and calculators, regional code-share profiles, pilot demand models, and other tools for pilot development.
He is a graduate from Brigham Young University with a Bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering and minors in Mathematics and Business Management.
He started flying when he was 16 and spent most of his college years as a flight and ground instructor out of Utah county teaching private, instrument, commercial and flight instructor students, and was instrumental in developing and overseeing the implementation of a CFI syllabus at a local flight school.
He has been flying the CRJ series for a large Regional for the last eight years and has been involved in various capacities ranging from pilot pay negotiation, scheduling, satellite domicile design to professional standards mediation.
His programming experience includes PHP, Java, JavaScript, C and HTML..
He became involved with pilot analysis when he recognized the impact the lack of good data and analysis had on the pilot profession and airline industry as a whole. He was the primary author of the first addition of Pilot Demand Projections/Analysis for the next ten years by AudriesAircraftAnalysis.
Currently Brant resides outside of Houston with his wife and two children.
Introduction
The first edition of this report has grown from a set of simple excel spreadsheets to complicated computer models with thousands of lines of code. That development has continued as the report now takes into consideration, early outs, training bubbles and attrition between different sectors of the aviation industry.
The purpose behind this report is to enlighten the reader regarding US domestic pilot demand over the next 15 years.
As with any projection, the following data is subject to change. It should be noted the accuracy of these reports are limited by the imperfection and incompleteness in the model. The report is also limited by the imperfections in the human element that has compiled these large reports. In the process of completing this model, some assumptions have been made regarding various unknowns. These assumptions are contained in the Definitions and Report Methodology sections.
It is hoped each future edition will grow in accuracy and scope.
US Airlines Industry Synopsis
In the last ten years, most major airlines have filed for bankruptcy to streamline costs and fundamentally change the way they do business. Mergers have touched an almost equal number of carriers in ways unforeseen over the last twenty years.
Updated FAA mandated rest rules have changed the industry just this last year, as pilot productivity diminishes slightly in return for more rested and safer pilots. We are currently seeing the effects of this rest rule shift. It still remains true that much depends on how efficiently airline management teams will use their existing pilots. In this regard, creative teams will find new ways to better deploy their pilots in ways that will also improve pilot productivity, quality of life, and safety. Management teams not up for the task will be left to lobbying for rest rule exemptions and experience financial headwinds due to pilot inefficiency. It is expected that the need to use pilots more efficiently will increase, and incorporating such efficiencies into an airlines schedule will play a greater role than it has in the past. However there will come a point when pilot productivity will reach its peak; the only recourse will be to hire more pilots.
The regional airlines are in a similar position the majors found themselves ten years ago. Due to a lack in capacity discipline the regional airlines find themselves in a shrinking market where many players are willing to fly below cost to maintain market share. As the Major airlines adjustment to this similar economic fact is finally winding down, resulting in significant profits, the regional airline's turmoil continues to heat up.
In the last year we have seen mainline carriers readjust regional airline aircraft and pilot contracts. The following elements have come to bear:
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Aging of the 50 Seat fleet is putting pressure on their supporting feeder airlines through increased maintenance costs moving mainline and regional carriers away from these older aircraft.
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Growing markets have allowed mainline carriers to use larger equipment in markets that once only supported 50 seat aircraft.
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Passenger preference for larger aircraft.
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Pilot demand at the regional airlines over the next 10 years will be closely tied to attrition by larger airlines and offset slightly by regional airline fleet reductions, as they move to larger aircraft.
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After a period of consolidation and restructuring the Majors are beginning a period of fleet revitalization. This is evident at almost every major airline and even some of the Regional airlines who are taking delivery of larger aircraft.
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JetBlue and American continue to operate some larger regional-size aircraft further cementing the scope limit at 76 seats for the E175 and CRJ 900 level. It is expected there will be little opportunity for further scope relief using Regional airlines. Pilot groups at the mainline carriers viewed the release of 50 seat scope as a tactical mistake and it appears what further strengthened their commitment to reduce scope was the forced expansion of scope through the bankruptcy processes of the last decade.
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Regional airlines are having difficulty finding qualified pilots at current wages. The best way to illustrate this is by comparing large regional jet compensation packages at mainline carriers versus compensation packages offered for mid-sized regional jets at regional airlines. The difference in pay versus difference in aircraft capability is not proportional.
The following table is of hourly compensation - Excludes retirement, work rule, and other benefit differences.Aircraft Boeing 717 - 110 Seats Embraer 175 AR - 76 Seats Empty (lbs) 68,500 48,259 Max (lbs) 121,000 89,000 Useful Load (lbs) 52,500 40,741 Delta Air Lines (717) Hourly Pay rates by year of longevity. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Captain ($ per hour) 179 181 182 184 185 186 188 189 191 192 194 195 FO ($ per hour) 70 97 113 116 119 122 125 128 129 131 132 133 CA Pay/Seats 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.71 1.72 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 FO Pay/Seats 0.64 0.88 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.21 Compass Airlines (E175) Hourly Pay rates by year of longevity. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Captain ($ per hour) 65 67 69 71 74 76 78 80 83 86 89 91 FO ($ per hour) 25 36 39 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 CA Pay/Seats 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.17 1.20 FO Pay/Seats 0.33 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 Delta Air Lines (717) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 CA Pay/(Useful load/1000) 3.41 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.52 3.54 3.58 3.60 3.64 3.66 3.70 3.71 FO Pay/(Useful Load/1000) 1.33 1.85 2.15 2.21 2.27 2.32 2.38 2.44 2.46 2.50 2.51 2.53 Compass (EMB 175) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 CA Pay/(Useful load/1000) 1.60 1.64 1.69 1.74 1.82 1.87 1.91 1.96 2.04 2.11 2.18 2.23 FO Pay/(Useful Load/1000) 0.61 0.88 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Report Methodology
The report is built off of these components,
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Aircraft order and retirement schedules
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Current and historical pilot staffing at an airline
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Mandatory pilot retirements or pilot attrition to other airline sectors
By calculating the fleet size over a period of time, the report estimates the number of pilots needed at a specific airline. The report then applies each year's estimated attrition to other segments to determine the total number of pilots needed each year.
Aircraft Order Schedule
The report first identifies the number of pilots needed per aircraft. There are a couple of ways this is done. The first and simplest way takes the current number of pilots at an airline and divides it by the total number of “active” aircraft. This is compared to the historical staffing ratio at that airline. Active refers to an airplane that is not parked in storage. This is the first method applied to an airline staffing forecast. For the most part it is a good average. If the historical staffing ratio is larger than the current ratio the historical ratio is applied.
There are a number of other factors that could change the number of pilots needed amongst airlines.
Some of these factors include:
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Aircraft utilization - how much the aircraft is flown. Pilots are limited to the number of block hours that can be flown per day; therefore, more flying per day for an aircraft requires more pilots.
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Pilot schedule efficiency, or how well aircraft routes and schedules are planned to allow the maximum pilot utilization for each day. Pilots are not only limited to between 8 and 9 hours of block hours per day, but they are also limited to a certain number of hours they can remain on duty, which in some cases can be scheduled up to 14 hours per day.
Due to the significant number of orders for aircraft (a result of many airlines renewing their fleets at the same time), if an airline wants new aircraft in the next few years, they must start planning for it today. We can reasonably guess, with some exceptions and a few assumptions, what most airline fleet sizes will be for each year over the next 5 years. Their aircraft order schedule and planned aircraft retirement for many airlines is public knowledge and can be gleaned from annual reports, quarterly reports, and press releases.
By comparing current staffing ratios to historical staffing ratios, discrepancies between current staffing and proper staffing can be noted and can give an idea to the reader how close that airline may be to their target staffing.
Pilot Attrition/Retirement Schedules
Pilot attrition is the simplest component to calculate. We know pilots cannot fly Part 121 beyond 65 years of age. They may retire early and may also have health issues that disqualify them from making it all the way to a 65 year age retirement. For the sake of conservative simplicity, the model assumes all pilots make it to age 65 retirement. Obviously, some of them won't which is why the website incorporates the early out factor.
Regional Airline and National Airline Attrition
This simply calculates the expected attrition from each of these segments based upon fleet size, the percentage of new hires at legacy carriers represented by each segment and percentage an airline represents in its segment.
The total size of the Regional or National airline pilot pool determines what percentage of a given airline can be expected to be hired in a specific year. For example, if there are only 10,000 pilots in the whole regional industry and the majors need 5,000, it can be expected that roughly 50% of the regional pilot pool would see attrition to the Majors that year. Likewise, if the regional pool is 50,000 pilots and the Majors still need only 5,000 pilots, then it can be assumed only 10% will be hired away during that year.
Percentages of attrition can be applied to each individual airline. As a representation, if the Regional industry is seeing a 10% draw that year from the destination carriers, then a Regional airline with 3,000 pilots can expect to see about 300 or 10% leave.
It is possible that some airlines may experience an unusually large attrition level. This discrepancy could be due to better and more attractive experience, training, or poorer working conditions and pay at their current airline, incentivizing a larger proportion of pilots to search for other employment.
To calculate how big the pool will be for the Majors to pull from in a given year, we compute each segment's size based upon their projected fleet numbers for that year. So, even though a 2,000 pilot draw from the Majors in one year might be 10%, the next year, if the total regional industry has shrunk, the same draw might be a larger percentage. It all depends on the combined size of the sector being drawn from.
Definitions
Airline Average Staffing Ratio – The ratio of the number of pilots/aircraft for a specific airline over the last 5 years. If sufficient history or information was not available numbers from similar airlines are used.
Attrition to other airlines – The hiring model in the report projects that a percentage of pilots required in each segment will come from other segments.
Average Upgrade – A point at which the average pilot is expected to upgrade. Pilots may upgrade before or after they reach 50% seniority, which for this report is assumed to be the average upgrade point.
Career Opportunity and Variety – Career options for pilots that may include the ability to upgrade to Captain, opportunity to fly a diversified group of aircraft and a diversified group of bases, and opportunities to move into training, and management positions. This list of career opportunity is not exhaustive. It can include anything that allows a pilot to continue to develop professionally.
Cumulative – A running total of the yearly totals. This could be reflected with aircraft orders or pilots in a table or chart.
Destination Segment Size in aircraft by year – This chart reflects the pilot demand models calculation for the combined airline fleet size by year in that particular segment.
Segment – A segment of the aviation industry where pilots are employed.
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Destination/Major Carriers – Airlines where pilots statistically stay the remainder of their career. Multiple factors affect the decision; usually it is a mixture of Compensation, Work Rules, Retirement, Career Opportunity and Variety that create a destination carrier.
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National Carriers – Airlines where a significant percentage of their pilots may choose to make a career, but where the mixture of Compensation, Work Rules, Retirement, Career Opportunity and Variety have not prevented a significant percentage of their pilots from moving on to Destination Carriers.
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Regional Carriers – Airlines where the mixture of Compensation, Work Rules, Retirement, Career Opportunity and Variety have made it difficult or undesirable for a significant portion of their pilots to choose to make these airlines a career. Hence, these pilot's strong propensity to move onto National or Destination carriers.
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General Aviation – Includes the following sectors Flight Instruction and Corporate.
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Flight Instruction – A pool of pilots whose primary flying position is in general aviation flight instruction.
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Corporate – This sector includes business aviation, fractional and any other Part 91 operation outside of flight instruction.
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Part 135 – Airlines or flight operations that hold a 135 certificate and thus operate significantly smaller aircraft than the Destination, National, and Regional Carriers.
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Military – A pool of pilots whose primary flying position is in one of the military branchs or government agencies.
Early Out – Over time history has shown that a percentage of pilots will either retire early, or permanently disqualify for their pilot medical, ending their careers early.
Mandatory Retirements- Refers to retirements required by Federal Aviation Regulations when pilots turn 65. For some of the National and Regional airlines where more accurate numbers were not available an estimated distribution was used derived from peer groups.
New Hire Pilot Events – Total number of new hire events where a pilot may have been hired at an airline. This number does not match total demand required for a sector because pilots may have moved around within a segment creating more new hire events than “Total Pilots” needed to satisfy the pilot needs of the segment.
Percent Attrition - This chart illustrates the percentage of the seniority list each airline is expected to lose each year. At a large airline losing 100 pilots might not be challenging, but at a small airline losing 100 may be catastrophic. This provides an "apples to apples" comparison between airlines.
Pilot/Aircraft Ratio – The ratio of pilots needed to staff each aircraft. The ratio changes among aircraft, business models, and the type of flying done by the aircraft.
Projected Seniority Progression – Projected movement through the seniority system at an airline for a pilot hired at the beginning of the year.
Projected Growth After 2020 (based on current orders ) – This model only takes into consideration known aircraft orders and estimated aircraft retirements to create the fleet projection that the pilot demand model is built on. As pilots move from one airline to another, aircraft orders at one airline may have a trickle down affect on other airlines that may subsequently lose pilots to that airline. If an airline does not have aircraft orders after 2020 then the model assumes stagnant fleet growth.
Fleet ( Boeing's 2014 Fleet Projection ) After 2020 – Like the previous model it assumes current projected aircraft orders and retirements up to 2020. After 2020 instead of applying estimated fleet projections the model applies a straight percentage of 1.6% to Destination and National carriers as the assumed growth that the pilot demand model is built on. Regional Airline models also follow Boeing's projection, which shows a small reduction on a year by year basis.
Training Bubble – As airlines increase hiring, training pilots come off line as they enter training for what can be a month to two months depending on the type of training. This removes pilots from line operations where they fly revenue flights for the company. As training increases the company needs more pilots to offset the loss in productivity experienced as pilots enter training. The reverse is true when a company may decrease or eliminate training. The training bubble attempts to project how the demand for pilots change based on changes in pilot hiring.
Total Demand – The total demand for pilots needed to satisfy the airline's requirements for pilots.
Total Number of Pilots in Segment - This chart reflects the total size of the combined pilot groups in this particular segment.
Work Rules – Work rules usually determine the quality of life a pilot experiences at an airline. Some work rules prevent the pilots from being penalized for low efficiency trips, others may offer a level of trip flexibility to trade trips, and still others may offer other benefits to the pilot's schedule.
Executive Summary
Destination Carrier
Executive Summary – The growth and retirements expected over the next few years from this sector look to drive the hiring in most other sectors. We should see strong hiring this year from many of the Destination carriers, which could reach over 3000 pilots, before the hiring plateaus starting in 2016. The demand for pilots across these carriers looks to build again in 2018 and will sustain that level or greater throughout the remainder of the decade. Airline fleet growth due to a strengthening economy, not pilot retirements, is what is driving the demand for pilots in 2015. As mandatory retirements slowly increase throughout this decade and into the next it will quickly surpass growth as the primary driver in pilot demand among these carriers.
Total segment size by number of pilots is forecast to climb from above 52,000 pilots to under 70,000 pilots by the end of 2030. The cumulative total is projected at about 61,500 pilots over the course of the next 15 years. To put that, in perspective, the total need for pilots in this segment is estimated to be between 2,000 and 4,500 pilots per year, depending on the year, or 3.5 – 6% of this segments pilot force each year.
National Carrier
Executive Summary – Unlike the Destination carriers, pilot attrition could play a larger role than growth when considering total pilot needs this year. Attrition could cool off as the Destination carriers moderate hiring in the next couple of years. However, as attrition grows towards the end of this decade, coupled with deferred aircraft orders that are forecast to start arriving, pilot demand could become very strong again by the end of the decade. The combined factors of growth and attrition will help speed upgrade times at the National Carriers, which indirectly could help reduce the amount of attrition experienced and projected by the National carriers in this report. Even with this increased demand all National Carriers are projected by this report to see attrition to the Destination carriers remain in the single digit percentages of their total seniority list.
The percent attrition from the National Carriers in 2018 could be the highest forecast at any year in the next 15 years. After the 2018 peak in attrition from the National to the Destination carriers, attrition is expected to drop some.
Total demand for pilots at the National Carriers should spike slightly next year and then again in 2019. The demand for pilots in this segment is forecast to stay between 650 and 1,700 pilots per year. Cumulative needs for pilots by this segment over the next 15 years appear to be around 16,000 pilots. Total segment size in number of pilots grows from above 6,000 pilots to just under 11,000 pilots in the next 15 years.
Regional Carrier
Executive Summary – The Regional industry has certainly remained interesting as pilot demand plays an important role in its evolution, pilot hiring and attrition challenges highlight fundamental cracks in the regional airline business model. A significant change has occurred as parent companies have re-structured their wholly-owned regional airlines by offering flow-through programs to Destination carriers in return for pay cuts; other airlines offer shorter upgrade opportunity in order to justify lower compensation, both of which are evolutionary changes that may be difficult for many independent regional airlines facing reductions to duplicate.
The airline carriers that are seeing double digit growth will have to contend with aggressive training schedules exacerbated by a high percentage of pilots who came to the airline with the understanding that they would move on and thus do exactly that.
The independent regional airlines not considered low cost will likely face another problem. The slightly higher compensation and better work rules that have historically been at these regional airlines versus newly-minted wholly owned carriers will likely begin to pale in comparison to National, Destination and some Corporate positions, where the mixture of benefit, could easily be double. These factors combined with regional industry uncertainty, pressure to keep costs low and less upgrade opportunities could result in a higher level of attrition, and for those unable to leave, the result may be growing pilot unrest. It is likely that these contractors will be used by the mainline carriers to make up for the flying that is unable to be covered by their wholly owned or low cost regional partners. With significantly lower compensation, poorer work rules than National and Destination carriers, and longer upgrade times, attracting pilots for these airlines could be challenging.
Despite the many problems the Regional segment faces, airlines that are able to create a career for more of their pilots could see their competitive edge grow as other regional airlines struggle to attract pilots. This may become the a key factor in the development of the regional industry story, depending how the lower cost regional airlines fare.
Total attrition from the regional airlines, although significant, appears to be moderated by pilots entering the National and Destination carriers from the military, Corporate, and Part 135 segments.
Audries Aircraft Analysis 
- In Partnership with KitDarby.com
Destination Carrier Analysis
Alaska Airlines
American Airlines
Delta Air Lines
Hawaiian Airlines
SouthWest Airlines
United Airlines
Federal Express
UPS
Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand
Photo By Alaskan Dude "flickr"
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 737 400 | 27 |
| Boeing 737 700 | 14 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 61 |
| Boeing 737 900 | 35 |
| Total | 137 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
Alaska Airlines Summary
Alaska Airline as an airline provides reliable fleet projections through the end of 2017. Beyond that aircraft orders for the Boeing 737 Max aircraft will begin to arrive starting in 2018. This report estimates that Alaska growth will be above industry average year over year as they continue to strengthen and solidify their market out of the northwest and move into new markets.
Alaska Airline pilot/aircraft ratio is slightly below industry average for the 737 fleet at 11.4 pilots per aircraft. This may be a result of the freighter aircraft included in the number, which typically see much lower utilization than network passenger operations.
Mandatory age retirements should continue to pick up over the next few years and look to eventually peak in 2027. Hiring for growth is estimated to continue to match hiring required due to attrition for the next 3 years. Hiring required for Fleet growth could outstrip hiring for attrition at the end of the decade before the mandatory retirements increase to the retirement peak in 2027.
Training bubble demand looks to remain fairly flat due to steady growth rate and consistent retirement levels.
Total pilot demand among Alaska Airlines will hover around 100 pilots per year for the duration of the report.
Pilots that are hired this year can expect average upgrades to occur in 9 years. This seems to be constant across the two growth models.
Alaska Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 1567 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 137| Alaska Airlines Average Projected Staffing (Historical): | 1,813 |
| Projected --> | Understaffed by : 246 Pilots |
| Airline Average Staffing Ratio: | 13.2 |
The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Alaska Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 Max 8 or 9 | 2014-02-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 37 | |
| Boeing 737 900 | 35 | 2015-02-27 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Total | 11 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 76 |
Alaska Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 700 | 14 | 2014-02-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Boeing 737 400 | 27 | 2015-01-09 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Total | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 38 |
Alaska Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3.2 | 38 |
Alaska Airlines Charts
American Airlines Pilot Demand
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 190 195 | 20 |
| MD 80 Series | 138 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 246 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 118 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 62 |
| Airbus A321 200 | 139 |
| Boeing 757 200 | 95 |
| Boeing 767 200 | 5 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 58 |
| Airbus A330 200 | 15 |
| Airbus A330 300 | 9 |
| Boeing 777 200 | 47 |
| Boeing 777 300 | 16 |
| Total | 968 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
American Airlines Summary
American Airlines fleet plan proved difficult to estimate due to the shear volume of aircraft on order and that could be retired. Percent Fleet growth appears to be just above industry average.
American Airlines Pilot/Aircraft ratio on the report rests at about 13.4.
Mandatory retirements should continue to pick up over the next few years and look to eventually peak in 2023.
Training bubble demand looks to grow next year as pilot demand picks up and remains high for the foreseeable future.
The report shows pilots that are hired this year can expect average upgrades to occur in 7 years. This seems to be constant across both growth models.
American Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 13000 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13.4 --- Current Fleet Number: 968| American Airlines Average Projected Staffing (Historical): | 14,326 |
| Projected --> | Understaffed by : 1326 Pilots |
| Airline Average Staffing Ratio: | 14.8 |
The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
American Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A319 100 | 118 | 2015-01-30 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Airbus A320 NEO | 2015-01-09 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | |
| Boeing 737 Max 8 or 9 | 0000-00-00 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | |
| Boeing 787 8 | 0 | 2015-01-30 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Boeing 777 300 | 16 | 2015-01-30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Airbus A321 200 | 139 | 2015-01-30 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Airbus A350 900 | 2015-01-09 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | |
| Boeing 737 800 | 246 | 2015-01-30 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Boeing 787 9 | 0 | 2015-01-30 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Total | 74 | 60 | 67 | 60 | 48 | 44 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 408 |
American Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| MD 80 Series | 138 | 2015-01-30 | 43 | 42 | 37 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 246 | 0000-00-00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Boeing 757 200 | 95 | 2015-01-30 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| Boeing 767 200 | 5 | 2015-01-09 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 58 | 2015-01-30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 62 | 2015-01-30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Total | 103 | 42 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 |
American Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -29 | 18 | 30 | 42 | 42 | 37 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.8 | 165 |
American Airlines Charts
Delta Air Lines Pilot Demand
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 717 | 52 |
| MD 80 Series | 118 |
| MD 90 Series | 65 |
| Boeing 737 700 | 10 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 73 |
| Boeing 737 900 | 31 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 57 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 69 |
| Boeing 757 200 | 124 |
| Boeing 757 300 | 16 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 74 |
| Boeing 767 400 | 21 |
| Airbus A330 200 | 11 |
| Airbus A330 300 | 21 |
| Boeing 777 200 | 18 |
| Boeing 747 400 | 13 |
| Total | 773 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
Delta Air Lines Summary
Delta will take delivery of the remaining 717's from Southwest this year and 11 more at 3 a month in 2016. This should comprise the majority of Delta's growth. 737-900's will also continue to arrive as previously forecast, and it is expected that some of those aircraft will replace some aging 757 and A320 capacity. After this year Delta's fleet growth looks to be above industry average from year to year for the next 3 years.
There is a possibility that as the 717 continues to come on property that the average Pilot/Aircraft ratio will drop since that aircraft has historically seen an aircraft pilot/aircraft ratio less than 14.9.
Mandatory Retirements will continue to build steadily and should peak at above 800 pilots per year in 2022. For now most hiring is due to fleet growth.
Not surprisingly as Delta has spooled up their training department they have seen a need for more pilots to replace the pilots no longer on the flight line, but who are in training. This will likely cool off starting in 2016 after Delta takes the remaining 717's. If retirements/early outs grow before they become mandatory it is possible that the need for training will remain steady as the Delta training department stays active with internal pilot transitions.
Total Demand should cool to about half the demand from 2015 in 2016, but is forecast to increase back up to peak demand in 2022.
A pilot hired this year can expect average upgrade in 2022-2023 or roughly 8 years.
Delta Air Lines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 11530 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 14.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 773| Delta Air Lines Average Projected Staffing (Historical): | 11,525 |
| Projected --> | Overstaffed by : 5 Pilots |
| Airline Average Staffing Ratio: | 14.9 |
The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Delta Air Lines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 717 | 52 | 2015-03-02 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Boeing 737 900 | 31 | 2014-11-23 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 |
| Airbus A321 200 | 0 | 2015-01-14 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Airbus A330 300 | 21 | 2014-02-27 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Boeing 787 8 | 0 | 0000-00-00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Airbus A350 900 | 2015-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | |
| Airbus A330 900 NEO | 2015-01-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | |
| Total | 59 | 49 | 39 | 37 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 |
Delta Air Lines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 757 200 | 124 | 2015-02-04 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 74 | 2015-02-04 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Boeing 747 400 | 13 | 2014-11-23 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Total | 20 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
Delta Air Lines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 39 | 29 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.7 | 164 |
Delta Air Lines Charts
Hawaiian Airlines Pilot Demand
By Dylan Ashe of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 717 | 18 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 9 |
| Airbus A330 200 | 20 |
| Total | 47 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
Hawaiian Airlines Summary
Hawaiian does have Airbus A321 and 350 aircraft on order. The report expects Hawaiian to see the most significant fleet growth towards the end of this decade.
Mandatory Retirements are currently unknown, but have been estimated by this report at 20 pilots per year.
The training bubble looks to be nominal and should not affect hiring significantly over the life of the forecast.
Total Pilot Demand should be steady for the next few years, but pick up as Hawaiian takes delivery of additional aircraft.
Average upgrade is not forcastable due to the lack of retirement information and the minor fleet growth Hawaiian expects to see over the next few years.
Hawaiian Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 627 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13.3 --- Current Fleet Number: 47The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Hawaiian Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A330 200 | 20 | 2015-04-14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Airbus A321 NEO | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Airbus A350 800 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Total | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hawaiian Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 767 300 | 9 | 2015-04-14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Hawaiian Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 22 |
Hawaiian Airlines Charts
Southwest Airlines Pilot Demand
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 737 300 | 120 |
| Boeing 737 500 | 13 |
| Boeing 737 700 | 447 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 93 |
| Total | 673 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
Southwest Airlines Summary
For a few reasons forecasting Southwest fleet growth over a given period of time is difficult. For now this report assumes that the growth will match closely with industry average fleet growth.
Southwest sees some of the lowest Pilot/Aircraft ratios among its peers. Southwest's business model inherently lends itself to the efficient use of pilots, allowing it to have high aircraft utilization with fewer pilots.
Southwest will have a retirement wave, but the wave is forecast a few years later than most of the other mainline carriers. This wave looks to peak in 2027.
The training bubble should be nominal thanks to the model's smooth fleet growth and smooth pilot demographics that allow for a more gentle hiring wave.
Total Pilot demand should be fairly consistent over the next few years with the need for new pilots hovering at about 300-500+ pilots per year.
From the report's current projections upgrades time has dropped and are currently projected at about 10 years.
Southwest Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 7500 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 673The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Southwest Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 Max 8 or 9 | 2014-02-28 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 22 | 33 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 170 | |
| Boeing 737 700 | 447 | 2015-04-14 | 16 | 35 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 93 | 2015-04-14 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Boeing 737 MAX 7 | 2014-02-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | |
| Total | 27 | 35 | 29 | 23 | 25 | 36 | 34 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 287 |
Southwest Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 300 | 120 | 2014-02-28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 121 |
| Boeing 737 500 | 13 | 2015-02-27 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Total | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 27 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 134 |
Southwest Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 27 | 29 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 20 | -3 | 12.8 | 153 |
Southwest Airlines Charts
United Airlines Pilot Demand
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 737 700 | 36 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 130 |
| Boeing 737 900 | 126 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 55 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 97 |
| Boeing 757 200 | 73 |
| Boeing 757 300 | 21 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 35 |
| Boeing 767 400 | 16 |
| Boeing 777 200 | 73 |
| Boeing 787 8 | 12 |
| Boeing 787 9 | 5 |
| Boeing 747 400 | 24 |
| Total | 703 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
United Airlines Summary
The report expects United Airlines fleet growth to remain relatively flat for the next few years as the majority of its aircraft are dedicated to fleet renewal.
As United continues to take delivery of large wide-body aircraft the pilot/aircraft ratio should remain high. United as an airline sees higher aircraft utilization, which does require more pilots. Often very high levels of aircraft utilization result in less efficient utilization of pilots, thereby also increasing the requirement for a higher pilot/aircraft ratio.
United retirements should steadily increase until its peak in 2028.
United's training bubble could be a factor over the next year depending on their fleet growth models. If fleet growth continues the training bubble will be irrelevant; however, if fleet growth decreases, then demand for pilots could somewhat slacken in 2016.
Total Demand looks to oscillate over the next few years, but is forecast to remain strong at the end of the decade and should continue through the next decade.
Average Upgrade for pilots hired this year is forecast to be at about 8 years.
United Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 10612 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 15.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 703The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
United Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 900 | 126 | 2015-04-14 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Boeing 737 Max 8 or 9 | 2014-02-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | |
| Airbus A350 1000 | 2015-01-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | |
| Boeing 787 8 | 12 | 2015-01-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boeing 787 9 | 5 | 2015-04-14 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 55 | 2015-05-19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Boeing 787 10 | 2015-01-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | |
| Total | 24 | 21 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 37 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 |
United Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 757 200 | 73 | 2015-04-14 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73 |
| Boeing 747 400 | 24 | 2015-01-25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 97 | 2014-02-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 67 |
| Total | 15 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 142 |
United Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 9 | 12 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 15 | -9 | -5 | -12 | 5.9 | 71 |
United Airlines Charts
Federal Express Pilot Demand
By Curimedia of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 757 200 | 101 |
| Boeing 767 300 | 20 |
| Airbus A300 600 | 65 |
| Airbus A310 200 | 11 |
| Airbus A310 300 | 6 |
| MD 10 and 11 Series | 102 |
| Boeing 777 200 | 25 |
| Total | 330 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
Federal Express Summary
As Federal Express takes on mostly second hand aircraft, fleet projections can be difficult. For now, with estimated aircraft deliveries and retirements, fleet growth is projected to increase slightly over the next few years. This could easily change if FedEx brings on additional aircraft through other unknown arrangements.
Pilot/Aircraft Ratio is expected to remain unchanged.
Mandatory Retirements are expected to be consistent, slowly peaking to about 230 pilots per year in 2024.
The training bubble should remain fairly irrelevant.
Total pilot hiring demand should be light in 2015 but grow throughout the next ten years to over 300 pilots per year based on the reports assumptions.
Pilots hired this year are forecast to expect an average upgrade in approximately 8 years.
Federal Express - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 4288 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 13 --- Current Fleet Number: 330The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Federal Express Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 767 300 | 20 | 2015-04-14 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| Boeing 777 200 | 25 | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Total | 4 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
Federal Express Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A310 200 | 11 | 2015-02-27 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Airbus A310 300 | 6 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Total | 6 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Federal Express Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 41 |
Federal Express Charts
UPS Pilot Demand
By Andrew W. Sieber of Flickr
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 757 200 | 75 |
| Boeing 767 200 | 60 |
| Airbus A300 600 | 52 |
| MD 10 and 11 Series | 38 |
| Boeing 747 400 | 13 |
| Total | 238 |
*Ordered by Range - The Longer Range aircraft on the right are usually staffed with more pilots than short range aircraft on the left. Longer range aircraft usually require more pilots to ensure adequately rested crews than short range aircraft which often only require 2 pilots per hour.
UPS Summary
The report has no fleet forecast for UPS. As a purchaser of second hand aircraft, predicting future “orders” becomes difficult as they are often made without much lead time.
Pilot/Aircraft Ratio is expected to remain consistent.
Mandatory Retirements are expected to remain steady as they grow to their peak of 170+ pilots in 2026.
The training bubble should remain irrelevant.
Due to the mandatory at 65 retirements as the primary driver for new pilots, it is expected that this will remain steady and peak in 2026.
The current forecast shows pilots who are hired this year can expect average upgrade to be in 10 – 11 years.
UPS - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 2600 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 238The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
UPS Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
UPS Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
UPS Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
UPS Charts
Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among Major Airlines
Major Airlines - Retirements
Mandatory Retirements | Percent of Total Pilots - AGE 65Major Airline Growth
Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growth - Total Pilots at end of 2015 52,293Total Pilot Demand for Major Airlines
Destination Segment size in Pilots by Year
Destination Segment size in aircraft by Year
National Carrier Analysis
Allegiant Air
Frontier Airlines
JetBlue Airways
Spirit Airlines
Sun Country
Virgin America
By Aero Icarus of "flickr"
Allegiant Air Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| MD 80 Series | 53 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 6 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 9 |
| Boeing 757 200 | 6 |
| Total | 74 |
Allegiant Air Summary
As a user of second aircraft Allegiant fleet growth plans are more difficult to forecast. However they have released some information that helps the report predict something of their fleet plans. In the short run the forecast expects that Allegiant will see single digit fleet growth.
Pilot/Aircraft Ratio remains low at about 7 pilots per aircraft. This is expected to remain low due to the airline's low aircraft utilization, congruent with its business model.
Mandatory Retirements are unknown at this time; however, it is expected that Allegiant will continue to see attrition to other carriers as pilots leave for better opportunities elsewhere.
The training bubble should remain irrelevant.
Pilot Demand should remain high this year as Allegiant takes delivery of additional aircraft. However, their pilot demand should remain closely tied to fleet growth and attrition to other airlines.
If Allegiant continues to lose pilots to other carriers the report expects that for pilots hired this year upgrade can be expected in 4 years. It is important to keep in mind that these projections assume the most senior pilots leave, which in most cases is unlikely. Unfortunately, not enough information is available to predict a more accurate attrition distribution, for now.
Allegiant Air- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 516 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 7 --- Current Fleet Number: 74The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Allegiant Air Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A320 200 | 9 | 2015-04-14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 6 | 2015-04-14 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Total | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
Allegiant Air Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 757 200 | 6 | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Airbus A319 100 | 6 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Total | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Allegiant Air Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 8 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3 |
Allegiant Air Charts
By Yuxi3200 of Flickr
Frontier Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Airbus A319 100 | 35 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 21 |
| Total | 56 |
Frontier Airlines Summary
Frontier does have aircraft on order. The report also reflects some aircraft orders towards the end of the decade, but aircraft retirement projections are unknown, which causes a “bubble” in fleet growth and hiring in 2019. It is very likely that some of the older Airbus aircraft will be retired as those new aircraft come on property.
Frontier Pilot/Aircraft ratio is almost exactly aligned with their historical ratio.
Like many of the Regional and other National carriers there are retirements expected, but they remain low.
The training bubble shouldn't be a factor until 2019-2020 if the aircraft on order end up being growth instead of fleet replacement.
Average upgrade could be in as little as 3 years for a pilot hired in 2015, if attrition to other carriers is significant.
Frontier Airlines- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 944 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 16.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 56The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Frontier Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A321 200 | 0 | 2015-04-14 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Airbus A320 NEO | 2015-01-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | |
| Airbus A319NEO | 2015-01-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
| Total | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 |
Frontier Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Frontier Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.4 | 89 |
Frontier Airlines Charts
Photo By Pylon 757 "flickr"
JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 190 195 | 60 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 130 |
| Airbus A321 200 | 15 |
| Total | 205 |
JetBlue Airways Summary
This reports assumptions show JetBlue seeing growth above industry average at between 5 and 6.6% fleet growth per year.
The Pilot Aircraft Ratio currently is at 12.7 pilots per aircraft and the report does not anticipate much change in the future from that number.
JetBlue does have a small number of mandatory pilot retirements this decade. Those retirements will continue to build until they reach a peak of approximately 120 pilots per year starting around 2028.
The training bubble for JetBlue does bounce around some in the next 5 years; however, it should be within the staffing margin error to not have a significant impact on hiring.
With the current assumptions made by the report estimated upgrade time is forecast to be around 4-5 years.
JetBlue Airways- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 2609 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.7 --- Current Fleet Number: 205The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
JetBlue Airways Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 190 195 | 60 | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Airbus A320 NEO | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | |
| Airbus A321 200 | 15 | 2015-04-14 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Airbus A321 NEO | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 45 | |
| Total | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 |
JetBlue Airways Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JetBlue Airways Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 | 125 |
JetBlue Airways Charts
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
Spirit Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Airbus A319 100 | 29 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 39 |
| Airbus A321 200 | 2 |
| Total | 70 |
Spirit Airlines Summary
With Spirit Airlines still in the middle of its growth phase and the mature business phase looking to be a few years out it see's the highest growth percentages of any airline in its segment.
Among Spirit Airlines peers it has a high pilot to aircraft ratio of 14.8. It is possible this high ratio may be a result of Spirit's efforts to preemptively staff for a rapidly growing airline.
For now Spirit airlines mandatory pilot retirements are unknown.
As Spirit Airline's training gradually cools down over the next decade it is expected that the training bubble will be absorbed.
Average upgrade at Spirit Airlines for a pilot hired this year is forecast to be at about 2-3 years.
Spirit Airlines- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 1035 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 14.8 --- Current Fleet Number: 70The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Spirit Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A320 200 | 39 | 2015-04-14 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Airbus A320 NEO | 2014-03-01 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Airbus A321 200 | 2 | 2014-03-01 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Airbus A321 NEO | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Total | 6 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
Spirit Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A319 100 | 29 | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Total | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
Spirit Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 6 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 14 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 69 |
Spirit Airlines Charts
By Aero Icarus of Flickr
Sun Country Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Boeing 737 700 | 7 |
| Boeing 737 800 | 15 |
| Total | 22 |
Sun Country Summary
This report assumes Sun Country takes delivery of 2 aircraft per year for the foreseeable future.
The airline is within 11 pilots of the historical pilot/aircraft ratio.
Based on the forecasts assumptions upgrade for pilots hired this year is estimated to be 3 years. It should be noted that with smaller fleet sizes, changes that would be considered minor at other airlines have a more drastic affect on upgrade opportunities.
Sun Country- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 246 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.2 --- Current Fleet Number: 22The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Sun Country Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Boeing 737 800 | 15 | 2015-04-14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Sun Country Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sun Country Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 10 |
Sun Country Charts
By Afresh1 of Flickr
Virgin America Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Airbus A319 100 | 10 |
| Airbus A320 200 | 43 |
| Total | 53 |
Virgin America Summary
The last of the Airbus A320-200 are expected to arrive in the next couple of years. Other new aircraft orders in the form of the A320 NEO are expected to arrive starting 2020.
Virgin America's aircraft ratio currently holds at about 11.7.
Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown publicly at this time, however it could be easily assumed that for the foreseeable future they should remain negligible.
Virgin America's hiring should be steady enough that the training bubble is relatively insignificant.
Average upgrade at Virgin for a pilot hired this year is forecast to be 5-6 years.
Virgin America- Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 618 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.7 --- Current Fleet Number: 53| Virgin America Average Staffing (Historical): | 620 |
| Projected --> | Understaffed by : 2 Pilots |
| Airline Average Staffing Ratio: | 11.7 |
The Average projected staffing (historical) is based off of historical staffing levels and reflects the difference between staffing today and what it would be based on historical numbers. The following pilot demand table is built with the assumption that current staffing is accurate as a reference point for hiring fluctuations.
The following table reflects the hiring model that assumes growth after 2020 stabilizes to 1.6%. In some cases airlines may already have aircraft orders beyond this point. This table ignores those orders because determining aircraft retirements beyond a five year window may not be accurate.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Virgin America Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Airbus A320 200 | 43 | 2014-03-01 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Airbus A320 NEO | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | |
| Total | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
Virgin America Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Virgin America Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 40 |
Virgin America Charts
Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among National Airlines
Attrition to Major/Destination airlines among National Airlines
Attrition to Major/Destination airlines | Percent of Total PilotsNational Carrier Growth
Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growthTotal Pilot Demand for National Airlines
National Segment size in Pilots by Year
- Total Pilots at end of 2015 > 6,335National Segment size in aircraft by Year
Regional Carrier Analysis
Air Wisconsin Airlines
Envoy Air
Compass Airlines
Endeavor Air
GoJet Airlines
Horizon Airlines
Mesa Airlines
PSA Airlines
Republic Airlines
SkyWest Airlines
ExpressJet Airlines
Piedmont
Silver Airways
Trans States
By BriYYZ of Flickr
Air Wisconsin Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 200 | 71 |
| Total | 71 |
Air Wisconsin Summary
Air Wisconsins fleet is projected to remain stagnant as it has over the last few years. It was expected that they would take delivery of additional CRJ 200 aircraft for Delta but that did not materalize. Without additional aircraft on order the report assumes the aircraft gradually retire as they hit their life limits.
The Pilot to Aircraft Ratio holds at about 12.
Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, but it can be expected that there will be some retirements given Air Wisconsin's storied length of operation.
Air Wisconsin like other stagnant regional airlines are forecast to see a training bubble driven primarily by changes in hiring from Destination and National carriers.
Average Upgrade is forecast for a pilot hired this year to be around 4 years due mainly to attrition to other carriers.
Air Wisconsin Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 860 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 71The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Air Wisconsin Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 71 | 2015-01-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Air Wisconsin Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 71 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 71 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 71 |
Air Wisconsin Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -7 | -19 | -29 | -7 | 0 | -5.9 | -71 |
Air Wisconsin Airlines Charts
By Ron Cogswell of Flickr
Envoy Air Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 140 | 34 |
| Embraer 145 | 118 |
| CRJ 700 | 47 |
| Total | 199 |
Envoy Air Summary
Envoy is expected to experience large fleet changes in the short term. CRJ aircraft expected to quickly make their way to PSA, the ERJ 140 will go away with some of the ERJ 145 aircraft, and ERJ175 aircraft expected to come on property. The shift follows the regional industry trend of wholly owned subsidiaries operating one or two new fleet types while outsourcing the rest to contract carriers.
Current Staffing rests at about 10.6 pilots per aircraft. For the now model has not taken into account the flow through agreement to American since it is unknown how that will affect Envoy attrition to other airlines. Matching optimum staffing levels with active fleets at Envoy may be a real struggle as the carrier goes through this transition.
Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, but it can be expected that there will be some retirements given Envoy's storied length of operation.
The training bubble will likely see wild swings throughout the next few years if the American follows through on their announced fleet plans for Envoy.
Average upgrade times look to be at 6-7 years for a pilot brought on the property this year.
Envoy Air - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 2100 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10.6 --- Current Fleet Number: 199The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Envoy Air Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 0 | 2014-12-31 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| Total | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
Envoy Air Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 140 | 34 | 2015-01-25 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| Embraer 145 | 118 | 2015-01-29 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 118 |
| CRJ 700 | 47 | 2015-01-25 | 18 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Total | 79 | 54 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 201 |
Envoy Air Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -79 | -34 | 20 | -20 | -25 | -5 | -6 | 0 | -6 | -6 | 0 | -13.4 | -161 |
Envoy Air Charts
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr
Compass Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 170 | 6 |
| Embraer 175 | 39 |
| Total | 45 |
Compass Airlines Summary
Compass's only aircraft on order are 20 ERJ 175 with American. This is expected to be growth and not fleet replacement.
Compass's pilot to aircraft ratio is assumed to be at about 12.6.
Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown, and given Compass's relatively short time as an airline are expected to be very low for the foreseeable future.
The training bubble may become a factor next year after the remaining ERJ 175 are delivered, but with attrition high to other airlines it will likely be absorbed over time.
Average upgrade times could be as low as 1 and a half to 2 years for pilots hired this year at Compass.
Compass Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 566 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 12.6 --- Current Fleet Number: 45The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Compass Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 39 | 2015-04-15 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Total | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Compass Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 39 | 2014-07-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Compass Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 20 |
Compass Airlines Charts
By Lord of Wings of Flickr
Endeavor Air Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 200 | 64 |
| CRJ 900 | 79 |
| Total | 143 |
Endeavor Air Summary
Fleet planning at Endeavor should become very predictable after the 81st CRJ 900 comes online and the last CRJ 200 leaves.
The Pilot to Aircraft ratios are estimated to hold at around 9.1.
Mandatory pilot retirements at this time are unknown but could become a factor as time moves on, because of the Endeavor pilot groups long history as Colgan, Mesaba, and Pinnacle Airlines.
After the last of the fleet modifications the training bubble should easily be absorbed by forecast attrition to other carriers.
Average upgrade times for pilots hired this year are forecasted to be around 4-5 years.
Endeavor Air - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 1300 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 9.1 --- Current Fleet Number: 143The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Endeavor Air Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 900 | 79 | 2015-04-15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Endeavor Air Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 64 | 2015-04-15 | 34 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Total | 34 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
Endeavor Air Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -32 | -30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.2 | -62 |
Endeavor Air Charts
By Lord of Wings of Flickr
GoJet Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 700 | 47 |
| Total | 47 |
GoJet Airlines Executive Summary
GoJet is expecting to receive CRJ 900 aircraft to fly for Delta starting in 2015.
Pilot to Aircraft Ratio looks to be around 10.9.
Mandatory pilot retirements at this time are unknown.
The Training bubble is forecasted to be irrelevant.
Average upgrade times at GoJet for a pilot hired this year are forecasted to be between 3-4 years.
GoJet Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 510 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 47The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
GoJet Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 900 | 0 | 2015-02-17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Total | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
GoJet Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
GoJet Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 7 |
GoJet Airlines Charts
By John Murphy of Flickr
Horizon Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Q 400 | 52 |
| Total | 52 |
Horizon Airlines Summary
The fleet plan remains stable with Q400's.
The pilot to aircraft ratio for Horizon looks to be around 11.7.
Mandatory pilot retirements are unknown but likely due to the length of this airlines history and the tendency for pilots to make Horizon a career.
The training bubble should be irrelevant.
Average upgrade time for pilots hired this year at Horizon are forecasted to be between 3 and 4 years.
Horizon Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 607 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11.7 --- Current Fleet Number: 52The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Horizon Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Horizon Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| DHC 8 300 | 0 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Horizon Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Horizon Airlines Charts
By James Willamor of Flickr
Mesa Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 700 | 20 |
| CRJ 900 | 57 |
| Embraer 175 | 23 |
| Total | 100 |
Mesa Airlines Summary
Mesa airlines continues to see growth as the remaining United 175 aircraft come on property. After that Mesa is not forecast to have additional growth.
The Pilot to Aircraft ratio is estimated to be somewhere around 9.
Mandatory Retirements are unknown.
The training bubble looks to slow down hiring for Mesa in 2016 as the final 175 aircraft come on property.
Average upgrade for a pilot hired this year at Mesa is forecast to be between 2 ½ and 3 ½ years.
Mesa Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 855 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 8.6 --- Current Fleet Number: 100The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Mesa Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 23 | 2015-04-15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| CRJ 900 | 57 | 2015-02-10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Total | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Mesa Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mesa Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 14 |
Mesa Airlines Charts
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr
PSA Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 200 | 35 |
| CRJ 700 | 14 |
| CRJ 900 | 24 |
| Total | 73 |
PSA Airlines Summary
Unless CRJ 200 aircraft start retiring this year PSA is forecasted to see extraordinary growth. The growth is forecasted to almost double the size of PSA in one year. This presents significant hurdles to the company as the training department at PSA attempts to mobilize sufficient resources to adequately train the incoming pilots.
The Pilot to Aircraft ratio seems to around 11.
While training will remain high in 2015 and 2016, the reduction in growth looks to create a large training bubble, resulting in a little less hiring than standard in 2017.
Upgrade opportunities for the forecasted numbers may come as early as 1 year for properly qualified pilots.
PSA Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 800 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 11 --- Current Fleet Number: 73The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
PSA Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 900 | 24 | 2015-04-09 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| CRJ 700 | 14 | 2015-04-09 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Total | 28 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 |
PSA Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 35 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 35 |
| CRJ 700 | 14 | 2014-03-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 9 | 49 |
PSA Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 28 | 36 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | -33 | -9 | 2.3 | 28 |
PSA Airlines Charts
By cliff1066 of Flickr
Republic Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 145 | 41 |
| Q 400 | 28 |
| Embraer 170 | 72 |
| Embraer 175 | 95 |
| Embraer 190 195 | 5 |
| Total | 241 |
Republic Airlines Summary
Republic continues to make its way through a fleet transition period. The ERJ140 aircraft have retired along with many of the ERJ145, the remaining ERJ145 with Delta appear to be sticking around. Meanwhile Republic continues to bolster its E175 fleet through agreements with United and American.
The Pilot to Aircraft ratio is estimated to be around 9.
Republic may need up to 350+ pilots this year.
Average Upgrade times at Republic could be as low as 3 years.
Republic Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 2116 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 8.8 --- Current Fleet Number: 241The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Republic Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 95 | 2014-09-22 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Total | 19 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
Republic Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 145 | 41 | 2015-01-29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 41 |
| Q 400 | 28 | 2014-09-20 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Total | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 72 |
Republic Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 9 | -1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -20 | -4 | -8 | -9 | 0 | -1 | -12 |
Republic Airlines Charts
By cliff1066 of Flickr
SkyWest Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| CRJ 200 | 162 |
| CRJ 700 | 87 |
| CRJ 900 | 36 |
| Embraer 175 | 28 |
| Total | 313 |
SkyWest Airlines Summary
As SkyWest takes delivery of the remaining ERJ 175 aircraft on order with United they are removing the EMB 120 fleet. This should even out their fleet numbers. As with many of the regional airlines that do contract flying it is unknown if and for how long their aircraft will be renewed.
Pilot to Aircraft ratio at SkyWest is estimated to be around 10.9.
Due to SkyWest's fairly smooth fleet transitions the training bubble really shouldn't be much of a factor. However when an airline increases or decreases the number of fleet types the amount of training that is done internally is affected.
Average upgrade times for pilots hired this year at SkyWest look to be around 3-4 years.
SkyWest Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 3400 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 313The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
SkyWest Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 175 | 28 | 2015-04-15 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| CRJ 200 | 162 | 2015-04-15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Total | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
SkyWest Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 162 | 2014-08-08 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 150 |
| CRJ 700 | 87 | 2014-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 37 |
| CRJ 900 | 36 | 2014-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 11 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 31 | 44 | 187 |
SkyWest Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 11 | -3 | -5 | -9 | -9 | -18 | -18 | -18 | -19 | -31 | -44 | -13.6 | -163 |
SkyWest Airlines Charts
By redlegsfan21 of Flickrr
ExpressJet Airlines Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 135 | 9 |
| Embraer 145 | 226 |
| CRJ 200 | 81 |
| CRJ 700 | 41 |
| CRJ 900 | 28 |
| Total | 385 |
ExpressJet Summary
It is anticipated that most of the E145 aircraft that approach their contract expiration will not be renewed. The result of this is an aggressive fleet reduction. However the report feels a loss of over 150+ aircraft in 2017 that still have air-frame life is unlikely even though it is reported on the most recent 10-K. A loss in capacity of this kind of magnitude would be difficult for the Major airline to absorb and it is likely that some of those aircraft will be renewed. For now the report spreads out some of the 2017 reduction. The majority of CRJ 200 aircraft also coming up for rebid are not expected to be renewed. ExpressJet was awarded 15 E145 aircraft with American out of DFW, which will cushion some of their reductions.
ExpressJet's current pilot to aircraft ratio looks to be around 10.9. ExpressJet is experiencing above average attrition to the major airlines, it is not expected that they will need to furlough pilots.
Training bubble demand looks to be minimal.
Unless something changes in the fleet forecast, demand for new pilots is expected to pick back up in 2018-2019.
Upgrades based on average attrition are forecasted by the report to be at about 7-8 years. If attrition continues to be above average then that number could drop significantly.
ExpressJet Airlines - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 4208 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 385The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
ExpressJet Airlines Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ExpressJet Airlines Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| CRJ 200 | 81 | 2015-04-15 | 24 | 9 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 |
| Embraer 145 | 226 | 2015-04-15 | 55 | 26 | 70 | 35 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 |
| Embraer 135 | 9 | 2015-04-18 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Total | 79 | 35 | 99 | 43 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 314 |
ExpressJet Airlines Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -79 | -35 | -99 | -43 | -50 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -26.2 | -314 |
ExpressJet Airlines Charts
By James Willamor of Flickr
Piedmont Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| DHC 8 100 | 27 |
| DHC 8 300 | 11 |
| Total | 38 |
Piedmont Summary
Piedmont's fleet is expected to lose 1 Dash 8 100 this year, and then commence the delivery of 20 E145 from Envoy in 2016. It is unknown whether the E145 will replace the Dash 8 100.
Pilot/Aircraft ratio rests around 7.9 which is above average for most turboprop operators.
The training bubble will likely be a factor during 2016 and 2017 as Piedmont begins to take delivery of the E145 aircraft, even if the airline retires the Dash 8 100.
Upgrade opportunities are forecasted to accelerate with the delivery of the E145 aircraft, to 2-3 years for pilots hired this year.
Piedmont - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 300 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 7.9 --- Current Fleet Number: 38The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Piedmont Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 145 | 0 | 2015-02-04 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Total | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Piedmont Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| DHC 8 100 | 27 | 2015-02-04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| Total | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
Piedmont Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | -1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | 0.8 | 9 |
Piedmont Charts
By redlegsfan21 of Flickr
Silver Airways Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Saab 340 | 26 |
| Total | 26 |
Silver Airways Summary
Silver Airways is privately held, making it difficult to determine fleet projections. For now the forecast assumes Silver Airways fleet will remain at its current size.
Silver Airway's Pilot/Aircraft ratio is close to standard for a turbo-prop operator and rests around 8.
Upgrade times at Silver Airways are forecasted to be around 3-4 years.
Silver Airways - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 208 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 8 --- Current Fleet Number: 26The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Silver Airways Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Silver Airways Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Silver Airways Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Silver Airways Charts
By Brian of Flickr
Trans States Pilot Demand
| Aircraft | Number |
| Embraer 145 | 37 |
| Total | 37 |
Trans States Airlines Summary
Similar to PSA, TSA is expected to see extraordinary growth the next year. With the additional ERJ 145 slated to come on property from United they could more than double in size in a year. As with PSA this poses a unique set of problems for the airline as it seeks to attract, and train this many pilots.
Pilot to Aircraft ratio at TSA is estimated to be about 10.9.
After the 2015 aircraft arrive the number of pilots needed in 2016 is expected to be much lower due to the elimination of a very large training bubble.
Average upgrade could be as little as a year for those pilots qualified to apply for Captain positions.
Trans States - Pilot Hiring Table
Number of Pilots: 370 --- Pilot/Aircraft Ratio: 10 --- Current Fleet Number: 37The regional model applies the forecast fleet projection based on known aircraft orders and estimated retirements after until 2020 after which the tabled model reflects flat growth. This is coupled through attrition to the same model at the Major/Destination and National airlines which are tied to an estimated growth rate of 1.6% after 2020.
Aircraft Order and Retirement Assumptions
Data assumptions are based upon publicly available data and proprietary data from KitDarby.com.
Trans States Aircraft Orders |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Embraer 145 | 37 | 2015-05-19 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| MRJ | 2014-03-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Trans States Aircraft Retirements |
| Aircraft | On Property | Updated Date | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trans States Order/Retirement Total
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Average | Total | ||
| Net Gain/-Loss | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 |
Trans States Charts
Total Pilot Demand Comparison Among Regional Airlines
Attrition Among Regional Airlines
Attrition to other Segments | Percent of Total PilotsThe "percent attrition from each regional airline" chart is reflective of the percentage of the seniority list that is expected to leave that year. Due to our lack of retirement projections for the regional airlines the percentage is the same across each regional.
Regional Carrier Growth
Aircraft Fleet Growth/Reduction | % Change of Total Fleet | Pilots needed due to growthTotal Pilot Demand for Regional Airlines
Regional Segment size in Pilots by Year
- Total Pilots at end of 2015 > 17,162Regional Segment size in aircraft by Year
Military
By United States Navy
This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the military to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the military.
Corporate
By Global Jet of Flickr
This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the corporate sector to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the corporate industry in the US.
Part 135
By Massachusetts Office of Travel & Tourism
This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the Part 135 to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the part 135 operators in the US.
Flight Instruction
By Lwp Kommunikáció of Flick
This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the flight instruction industry to the part 121 airline sector. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the flight instructor industry in the US.
Total General Aviation Demand
This is only an estimate of the demand for pilots that might be seen from the general aviation industry to the part 121 airline sector. The general aviation industry represents the demand from the corporate and flight instructor sectors. It does not reflect the amount of pilots needed to properly staff the general aviation industry in the US.
Total Comparison Among All Segments
Draw from each segment to Support 121 Pilot Attrition and Growth
Part 121 Industry size in Pilots by Year
Part 121 Industry size in Pilots by Year- Broken down by Retirements, and Growth
Pilots needed through 2030
| Current Pilots | 75,790 |
| Retirements | -50,119 |
| Current pilots remaining | 25,671 |
| Pilots for Growth | 18,603 |
| Pilots for Retirement | +50,119 |
| Total Pilot Demand | 68,722 |
Part 121 Industry size in aircraft by Year
Total Pilot Demand Broken Down By Revenue and Aircraft Category
Airlines with over 1 Billion $ in Revenue and Aircraft larger than 100 Seats.
Legacy Airlines
Pilot Size: 45,435Cargo Operations
Pilot Size: 6,858Low Cost Carrier Airlines
Pilot Size: 6,088Comparison
Pilot Size: 58,381It should be noted that the total and cumulative numbers in the following table do not reflect the amount of pilots needed in the Part 121 sector, but represent the amount of new hire training events projected to occur as pilots move into and between industry segments.
Airlines with Between 100 Million and 1 Billion $ in Revenue or do not operate aircraft larger than 100 Seats and have over 100 Million in Revenue.
Pilot Size: 16,908TurboProp
Pilot Size: 500
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