The furlough calculation that totaled the number of pilots not needed by a regional airline due to fleet reductions, has been removed. Historically the website used this number to carry forward furloughs since they were expected to return during the recession. However, due to the brisk hiring experienced among the regional airlines and recent changes in our industry the likelihood of a regional airline pilot holding onto a furlough ticket with the hopes of returning to the furloughing airline is slim. It is so slim now that the number is no longer carried forward in the model’s calculation.
The number is still reflected in the Major airlines model in the event airline reductions become a part of their future, which is unlikely for now.
A couple of additional things to note. On the premium pilot demand projections, that attempt to project out to 2030 there are some glitches. For example as an airline dies by the numbers (no new airplanes in the projections) the seniority progression calculation tends to glitch for now. So rest assured if a regional airline is showing significant losses in aircraft, there will likely not be a surge in upgrades. This error tends to occur as a fleet count moves to zero.
